Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

The underwriters are not buying the shares up front it appears so they don't know how much it will raise yet and they can't pay off that debt now, makes no sense, interest payments are not bad through next year and they need the cash until Anchor launch details are decided.

I get 204 million fully diluted shares with all options exercised not counting the 150 million Corsicanto Limited notes due in 2032 which is unknown.

11.2 million of those shares of the 204 million are at 7.47 conversion per share so stock would need to be higher for those to count.

I would HOPE 2014 turns the corner to profitability, I would suspect we can use the 200 million shares or thereabouts as the number going forward for per share calculations.

For example: 800 million in sales in 2015 would be a 30-40 stock price with current dilution assuming normal P/E. If peak sales are really 1.8 billion then in theory this dilution would be a blip in the long run.

BUT STILL COMES DOWN TO ANCHOR SUCCESS, it is be all end all, we should see close to 500 million in 2014 sales, that should be the goal. if they do that stock will be fine, let's see if they can execute. They should not need to dilute again if the are successful with Anchor