Monday, June 24, 2013 3:18:08 PM
Here is summary though.
Event
¦ BlackBerry is scheduled to release Q1 results before the markets open
Friday June 28th, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 am EST at
1-800-814-4859.
Implications
¦ Expecting a positive EPS surprise on margin expansion: Although
the company is guiding to roughly a break-even quarter, we expect
improved gross margins, on the back of the BB 10 launches, to push the
company into profitability. Our out-of-consensus EPS estimate is $0.72,
with sales of $4.1B on the back of 3.6M BB 10 devices.
¦ Next quarter looking for Sales and EPS increase: For next quarter,
we are looking for total BB 10 device volumes to increase to 5.5M on
the back of the Q5 launch and corporate upgrades but ASPs should
come down. We are looking for revenue of $5.0B and EPS of $1.28.
¦ Hard to forecast but we expect improving profitability: BlackBerry
is in the midst of a major platform transition. In general we believe
things are going well but this will be the first quarter where we get a
clearer picture of what BB 10 can mean to this company.
Recommendation
¦ Maintain Sector Outperform: We believe this quarter will illustrate that
BlackBerry has returned to solid profitability and BB 10 is gaining steam.
Although forecast accuracy is challenging due to the platform transition
we do expect both sales and profitability to improve.
It's better to be out wishing you were in than in wishing you were out.
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". - John Maynard Keynes
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