Let’s play the game what if Paultheoctopuss is right?…..
He wants to go down the rabbit hole, I’ll chase him for a little bit.
Let’s say he is right and Pulse will not hit 3M cases in 2013. Before doing calculations, we need to review two key statements from Pulse a.) new distributors - “these listings produce case sales, on average, five to six months after listing.” Distributors signed in Q4, 2012 will generate case sales in Q2 2013; those in Q1 2013 in Q3 and so on. There are exceptions but that is not the norm. b.) In the Q1, 10Q, “We expect the remainder of 2013 revenues to be significantly higher than our first quarter due to timing of shipments into our distribution system and the increased number of regional and national chain and convenience store listings secured for Cabana™ and the rollout of PULSE® into many of the same stores.” This was made on May 15, 2013 when they knew cases sales for April and what May was looking like.
Why is that important? It is important because they still believed at that time, they would pass the 1 million case THRESHOLD (their word) at the end of Q2, i,e 83,333 cases of Cabana per month. Given my case analysis that Guynms26 posted, they may even pass it in June.
For arguments sake, let’s just pick a number for year end cases sold. I am going with 900,000 – less than 1/3 of 3M (June 80,000 cases, July 100,000 cases, Aug. 110,000, Sept. 125,000, Oct. 120,000, Nov. 110,000, Dec. 100,000 – small drop off for seasonality, if there is any). Using a case revenue of $10.25 per case, this would translate into $9,225,000.
So ask yourself, Do I want to invest in a company that:
1.) Grew from $2.2M to $9.2M - more than 400% Y-O-Y. Don’t forget to add the revenue from Pulse case sales too!
2.) Jumped to 7th spot in the Lemonade category in 2 years. See BevNet chart recently released.
3.) Has a great tasting low cal lemonade (6 flavors) and a nutritional drink (5 flavors) that is just hitting the market
4.) Is in a niche market that society is trending towards – Low cal, non-carbonated drinks that are good for you.
5.) Is in a niche market (nutritional drinks) that even the Coke’s, Pepsi’s, and Jones Soda say they are seeing the largest growth and in a direction they are trending.
Even at $9M, it would get the attention of Coke, Pepsi and Dr. Pepper. Is a buy-out possible? Sure – anything is. Even if it is not, this is a fast growing company!
