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Friday, June 21, 2013 2:00:34 PM
Anchor has been the play all along. If NCE was decided right away the company would have been bought before any launch, since it was not it did not make any sense for AMRN to partner for Marine, did not make much sense for BP to partner for Marine.
Peak sales of 1.8 billion as one analyst put out today-not one of the bullish analysts) puts BO in 5 billion range.
I'm not sure what delusional world people live in.
If you are running and investment firm or a mutual fund you look at AMRN and see
1)Small biotech-no partner, no pipeline-Those almost always fail
2) Sales at this pace they run out of money in 2014
Those are not stocks they normally invest heavily in.
So you need those things to change and, like many other biotechs the stock price, when it runs, will and can run rapidly, but for now its daytraders and trend is down.
I've stated many times since December looking to add more but need to see the daytrading trend change, have not seen it.
Right now it trades on technical as WS is not interested in force for 2 reasons above.
I have faith management will succeed with Anchor partner and that leads to 500 million plus in 2014 sales, hey could be wrong but I think those odds are pretty high. At that point stock is worth 3 billion so going to 5 for a BO not too big a jump.
They fail with Anchor deal whole other ballgame and whole new analysis of the stock needed.
I have other investments making money, down on AMRN, never do margin, individual stocks I never overextend myself where I panic sell, AMRN is a hold until Anchor launch and then review the details of that and then hold for end of 2014 if deal looks good. WS doesn't get it right much of the time, computer and technical traders control the ST in most stocks, LT it's the bigger investors, once they have reason to get in AMRN the stock will take off, just need to have a long term view.
It's not going to Zero, if they screw the Anchor deal BP would still pay 1-2 billion for the drug. LT almost no downside, ST, still possible downside
Sell some OTM calls or buy some more and sell OTM calls
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