Thursday, June 20, 2013 9:06:08 AM
Jobless Claims - miss
Released On 6/20/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk6/15, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 334 K 336 K 340 K 333 K to 345 K 354 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 345.25 K 345.75 K 348.25 K
New Claims - Change -12 K -10 K 18 K
Highlights
Initial claims had been moving lower but suddenly turned higher in an unwanted week -- the sample week for the June employment report. Jobless claims jumped 18,000 in the June 15 week to a 354,000 level that is 10,000 higher than the May 18 sample week for the May employment report. Because of the sharpness of the latest jump, the comparison of 4-week averages for the sample weeks is also not positive, at 348,250 vs 340,500. These comparisons do not point to higher payroll growth or a lower unemployment rate this month.
Continuing claims are mixed in the latest data which are for the June 8 week. Continuing claims fell 40,000 to a new recovery low of 2.951 million but the 4-week average is up, rising 7,000 and off a recovery low to 2.979 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is holding at a recovery low of 2.3 percent.
There are no special factors to help explain the jump in initial claims during the latest week, one that does not support the outlook, as expressed yesterday by the FOMC, for improvement in the labor market, at least not for June. It's hard to call the effect of data on the markets given the play underway between economic growth and expectations for Federal Reserve policy, but today's report will not lift confidence in the jobs market.
Released On 6/20/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk6/15, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 334 K 336 K 340 K 333 K to 345 K 354 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 345.25 K 345.75 K 348.25 K
New Claims - Change -12 K -10 K 18 K
Highlights
Initial claims had been moving lower but suddenly turned higher in an unwanted week -- the sample week for the June employment report. Jobless claims jumped 18,000 in the June 15 week to a 354,000 level that is 10,000 higher than the May 18 sample week for the May employment report. Because of the sharpness of the latest jump, the comparison of 4-week averages for the sample weeks is also not positive, at 348,250 vs 340,500. These comparisons do not point to higher payroll growth or a lower unemployment rate this month.
Continuing claims are mixed in the latest data which are for the June 8 week. Continuing claims fell 40,000 to a new recovery low of 2.951 million but the 4-week average is up, rising 7,000 and off a recovery low to 2.979 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is holding at a recovery low of 2.3 percent.
There are no special factors to help explain the jump in initial claims during the latest week, one that does not support the outlook, as expressed yesterday by the FOMC, for improvement in the labor market, at least not for June. It's hard to call the effect of data on the markets given the play underway between economic growth and expectations for Federal Reserve policy, but today's report will not lift confidence in the jobs market.
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