Royster if I was guessing I think this is what may play out.
Since we can only guesstimate whats happening going forward we have to try and make some educated non-dotty guesses. We cannot assume Samsung has contributed anything and that the DELL revenue has continued dropping. There has been zero traction that we can see in the product that the fee was raised up, and the revenue from the product that they were getting in a steady stream was reduced.
If you look back at the last three years of quarterly revenue, they showed a very significant jump in all quarters from 2010 to 2011 across the board. A disturbing trend started in Q1 of 2012. It shows revenues pulling back to 2010 levels, Q1 1.1M above Q2 210K above Q3 275K above. Q4 shows 1.8M below 2010 total and Q1 2013 was actually 75K below 2010 and 1.2M below 2012 and 1.7M below 2011.
If you look back at the Q2 v Q1 comparison over the last 3 years in 2010 it was +579,527. 2011 was +9,000. 2012 was -323,870.
I think those fairly reflect the DELL royalty decrease. We don't know how agressive they have been in cost cutting, but we also don't have a handle on how much burden has been added by Safend, Scrambls and getting loans on the receivables.
The number I think is going to be somewhere between 300,000 and 1.2 million below Q2 last year IMO which puts it in a range of 5.4M to 6.2M. I think you are looking between 5,600,000 and 5,750,000 for the quarter.
No doubt they have been selling from the ATM IMO. I would not be surprised to see another placement announced within a week or 2 of the ASM.
