Guts,
I really think the market will completely underestimate a Worlds victory at Markman. Vringo is partially at fault here as I will discuss in a minute.
Once Worlds wins at Markman it's so much more than a victory over ATVI. It's a victory over the entire MMO industry. After the smoke clears I think we can easily get to $5 PPS but it will take some time to get there but post ATVI the hard work is over. Think about how hard MSFT fought after Google lost to Vringo. Post ATVI all the other suits will fall inline.
First thing after a victorious Markman we will get a damn good run to as high as $2, but almost immediately after the run happens doubts will seep in and a bleeding will begin back to the $1.50 area.
A week or so later I think we get a credible writer to lay out how massive this victory will be, a big position by some tuts, partnership or some other wild card will occur or a combination of some of these. This will send the stock over $2PPS to stay. Maybe this will be when we cash in the shares, for the money we will need to maximize profit, and do the R/S to get us over $5
The next run will only happen as settlements roll in and this process could take months to years.
The main lesson I have learned is trade these plays every chance you get. Had you traded Vringo over the past 12 months you would be up way over 100% in a stock that's flat over that time. That's how I will play this selling all the pops as they occur. The first pops will be bigger and longer and the size and time will be less and less each time.
Another lesson I have learned is most of the gains in these plays happen in minutes so keep a core position when you trade and don't trade a pop until your sure its a real pop. You can hold for 12 months and notice that 90% of your profits will happen in 3-4 minutes over that 12 months.
Vringo has spoiled the easy money for us but also shows us that the money will come if you have the right team to get the job accomplished and I think we have that team.
Markman victory makes us a player in this huge rapidly growing industry and the PPS will reflect that but not all at once. Trade, build, hold and watch your wealth increase.
Everyone have a good weekend.
