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Tuesday, June 04, 2013 11:24:36 AM
1) This has always been Amarin's plan 1) Marine (2012-2013) 2) Anchor late (2013) 3) Combo (late 2014) 4) REDUCE-IT (earliest 2015 to latest 2017) 5) rule the world statin market with combo > $10 Billion sales per year 2018 until 2030
2) Each statin would be a different filing. They'll go with the most potent combo, which is generic Lipitor. Crestor is the most potent statin, but the most potent combo has been Atorvastatin.
3) Guessing they couldn't file a combo until off patent without AZN's approval
4) Considerably more valuable than Anchor, it would garner the majority of all US statin sales due to convience and potency with less side effects than a statin and Omega 3. (Especially an Omega 3 not on formulary to treat > 200 trig levels). The Barriers that go up for Lovaza, with Anchor approval, will make 2014 an auto $1 Billion in Vascepa sales) The "market" has put no valuation currently on Anchor, Combo or REDUDEIT because 90% of bio's that self lauch fail.
5) Only time will tell.
6) Who's to say Pfizer isn't all over it, but at what price? This asset is extremely hard to value 5 yrs out at this time. Sales could be $2 Billion to a Lipitor dominating $12 Billion in 5 yrs. Amarin knows what they have, most holding AMRN stock don't understand the science, the EPA molecule in your blood stream is one of the essential needs of your body. The vast majory of the world is lacking this molecule in their diets, it causes diseases, one of which is CV disease.
7) I was concerned about this too. Then Elan statement brought on the idea of Royality agreements. Stuart Sedlack, SVP Amarin, is responsible for making such arrangements. How many knew he use to work for Elan?
http://www.amarincorp.com/partnering.html
I believe Elan and Amarin have always planned on a Royality partnership if Amarin needed to launch Anchor and combo. Elan and Amarin's history go back http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/897448/000115955403000002/amarinjanuary2820032.txt
Despite past "arguments" I believe they consider themselves brothers.
Williams
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