THE MARKET + IDCC
The war is back on the map....and investors have their maps out.
The markets will most likely follow the war .......making indecision ' the daily special ' for many investors until Iraq is finally resolved. No doubt each phase of the war will have some short term effect on daily activity.
All that being said we have been due for some consolidation.
So see it for what it is...
The back and feel activity should be expected after a mid-March advance of an 1106 point gain (14.9%) for the Dow Industrials and the 172 point gain(13.7%) for the NASDAQ Composite. Were just digesting these sharp gains....nothing like a good burp.
Last Tuesdays session and Fridays were great examples of this consolidation in progress....opening down strongly then recovering throughout the day. On Friday the markets managed to erase some early losses (-125 on the Dow Industrials and -18 for the NASDAQ Composite) closing only marginally lower (-28.43 on the Dow Industrials and -3.20 for the NASDAQ Composite). Breadth statistics on both the NYSE and OTC experienced quite a dramatic turnaround with an early deficit at 2:1 in favor of losers pivoting to a modest plurality of gainers by the close.
Be prepared for more of the same behavior over the next several sessions and expect that, if the current move off the early March lows is for real then prices should find ample support into or just above the late February congestion areas. For the Dow Industrials this is the 7930-8000 zone, the S&P 500 Index, the 830-840 zone and the NASDAQ Composite the 1320-1350 zone.
Just to keep up with reality at home..keep your eyes open on our Economy...things are still sluggish. Take a look at these recent economic numbers. Personal spending in February held steady with the previous month, and it was the first time that spending failed to rise for two straight months since December 1990-to-January 1991 when the U.S. was in recession. February personal income rose 0.3%, after gaining 0.4% in January. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell in March for a third straight month to 77.6, the lowest since August of 1993.
April is generally a fairly benign month with a good deal of economic data...so keep your helmets on...pray for our troops....and watch for Bombs over Baghdad.
IDCC
We are due for a little consolidation ... certainly from a technical point of view we are in overbought territory. In any case we could trade as low as 21.70 [support] in the short term....below that would be the 18 to 19 support area...I really don't see that at this time,,,how about you Jim?
In any case consolidation moments are buying opportunities...especially with this one....
I will be beaching it with my kids and granddaughter this week...so I will be off the air ways....back in a week to ten days depending on how lazy I feel.
If we have a little weakness....no big deal....if we don't have a big move this coming week...it means nothing FUNDAMENTALLY IMHO...just a little technical consolidation..........OH and if it pulls forward 5 points or more...that would not be a big surprise either...in any case focus on the facts.
As always your comments and thoughts are appreciated. Alley
I will look forward to reading them when I return.
Bless all of you.....enjoy your good fortune....
THE BEST IS YET TO COME.
AI
