Monday, May 06, 2013 4:56:36 AM
The way I see it, the machines don't work as advertised, and people are starting to realize they never will, including many longs such as myself. I was briefly encouraged by a slide from JB's recent presentation about the process accepting high amounts of PVC and PET, as this should dramatically alter the feedstock sources (actually get waste plastic for free).
But it's not about feedstock. It's not about the Crayola deal, or fuel buyers, or stack tests, or pre-melts, or cyclones, or fundraising. It's about production. It has been for over a year now, and they cannot produce with sufficient up-time and sufficiently high margins. And while it's improving, the progress is not fast enough.
I fear the company is in the final throws of its life. There is no more bullish talk coming from the company (like expected timeframe for CFP), and no reports of any appreciable amount of tanker traffic, which implies revenue even in Q2 will suck. IMO before the end of this year, if the company hasn't already declared bankruptcy, 80% of shareholder value will have been wiped away by fundraising dilution.
I hope I'm wrong, but I've lost just about all hope for JBI now.
Reminds me of another one of my investments, Cereplast ... only with an army of patents and millions in revenue, they still didn't control costs enough to make CFP, and the stock is down over 99.5% in the past couple of years.
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