I can't say a short position is not defensible as clearly if you have been short since approval you are way ahead of longs.
I think there is some difference in approach between short term gains and long term gains. I think many of us are much better at long term investing, finding good companies with long term growth prospects and holding while others do a better job with short term trends.
Vascepa will do 500 million in sale sin 2014 or in that range, I would wager as much as I have that they will be in that ballpark.
The question is HOW they get there not IF to me.
-Anchor will have over 1000 sales reps and will expand focus to PCP which is not a focus now
-They need to raise money, maybe 300 million, maybe more for proper launch
-Options to raise the money are widely varied
-Partnership by itself has tons of variables-Minority interest, majority interest, just international, just domestic, Just Anchor and not Marine or REDUCE IT, just REDUCE IT-they have a tone of ways to handle this
-Hiring a third party sales force keeps 100% of sales in house but lacks BP backing and then how they finance the expansion becomes a question
-A partnership with BP takes some sales away but up front cash, sharing of launch expense etc. likely puts them cash flow positive 1-Q 2014
AMRN key starts from July to December, by 4Q starting they would want to have the direction in place so they can do a full launch upon Anchor approval. How they handle the Anchor launch determines everything-It's the whole kit and kaboodle, the whole enchilada--
So I see shorts not worrying until after July when negotiations start on Anchor launch AND the terms could end up with GIA with third party which WS won't like that.
When NCE is decided it should be positive as all info points to approval for NCE, just no idea of timing.
The CC for 1Q could be negative but based on analyst comments and shorts almost EVERYONE expects a bad 1Q and a bad CC and so bar is set really low.
On longs side: May could finally have real catalysts-NCE approval, good CC with good guidance, followed by July-Spet partnership for Anchor.
