BioSante Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BPAX)

[Just the facts maam]

Professor, QyQ, what we really need to know is what the future holds to determine a fair ratio. They have a business plan and this merger was part of it. The next steps in the plan will not only determine ANI's value but Biosante's as well.

Abbvie stated they expect to continue giving nice dividends to their shareholders in order to do that they are less likely to make major acquisitions which will drain their cash. If this is the case the practice of signing co-development and co-promoting agreements such as they did with Receptos in late March might be how they will proceed. If so then the importance of ANI to the equation with both manufacturing and sales capabilities becomes magnified in the event they wish to co-promote/develop Libigel.

We also can't underestimate the growing support globally for Generic drugs. So ANI provides us further revenue diversification and stability. ANI's revenue estimates were at $106 million by 2016 and $143.6 million by 2017, I believe these were understated as well to support the valuations.

ANI has future revenue growth generators as well

ANI has filed three ANDAs for products for which FDA approvals are expected beginning in 2014; however, ANI can offer no assurances that it in fact will be able to obtain such approvals. In addition, ANI has eight ANDAs in progress—three internal and five with a development partner. ANI expects to file an ANDA for one of these products in 2012, and the remaining seven ANDAs in 2013, with approvals expected beginning in 2015; however, there can be no assurances that the filing of these ANDAs will not be delayed or abandoned and no assurances that approval will be obtained. Further, ANI's pipeline of future development candidates includes products in each area of strategic focus, i.e., pain management (narcotics), anti-cancer (oncolytics), women's health (hormones and steroids), as well as complex formulations including extended release and combination products.

Oncolytics

ANI is positioned to develop and manufacture niche oncolytic (anti-cancer) drugs due to the capabilities of the ANI's containment facility and its expertise in manufacturing segregation. In particular, ANI is targeting products subject to priority review by the FDA, those with no blocking patents, and those with no generic competition. In addition to one such product already under development, ANI has identified six additional priority review opportunities in oncolytics.

Narcotics

ANI's main manufacturing facility in Baudette, Minnesota is licensed by the DEA for the manufacture and distribution of Schedule II narcotics, i.e., drugs considered to have a high abuse risk but that also have safe and accepted medical uses in the United States. In addition to its existing pipeline of three ANDAs (and five additional ANDAs with a development partner), ANI has identified additional product development opportunities in this segment.

Contract Manufacturing

Contract manufacturers are experiencing significant growth as both branded and generic companies are outsourcing some or all of their production to contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs) for the following reasons:

• Free-up internal resources to focus on core competencies in sales and marketing as well as research and development;

• Utilize internal manufacturing operations for higher volume or more critical products;

• Provide an alternative cGMP production site in the event of regulatory compliance issues at primary manufacturing site; and

• Specialized equipment or unique intellectual property possessed by the CMO.

ANI considers contract manufacturing to be an important component of its ongoing business strategy. Given its highly specialized manufacturing capabilities, ANI is focused on attracting niche contract manufacturing opportunities that fill idle capacity and offer higher margins.

Until ANI is no longer a private company we will not know for certain what to value them at. We are only going off on how much we believe they undervalued Biosante.

That still doesn't reduce the fear that the distorted valuations will be used to justify a cheap sell off. On the other hand if that was their plan, it would blatantly complete the fraud and identify all players. Which would only lead to larger lawsuit.

If it comes to it,at least Delaware is more accommodating to post merger legal action. I think in the end it won't but I am preparing in case it does.

I am still researching how one votes impacts their avenues of recourse post merger.