$heff's $tation of $tocks & $olid DD

[oldberkeley]

DVAX: The deciding factor for me was this morning's Jeffries report with the misleading and IMO misunderstood headline trumpeting a $5 price target.

The problem is, they're predicting a CRL tomorrow, an eventually successful retry by DVAX, and a $5 PPS in 2015!

They also did a thorough analysis of biotechs rejected in the ADCOM and then approved by the FDA. From the report:

In addition, we have found a published McKinsey analysis of FDA panel meeting votes and approval outcomes from 2001-2010. Of the 543 panel meetings held during this time, there were 190 panel meetings for new drugs, and a voting question on approval was conducted at 63 of these panel meetings. The panels voted no to 14 drugs, and not surprisingly, only 2 of these 14 drugs (14%) were actually approved by the FDA.

That was enough for me, but I sincerely wish the best for all those holding through, this is a real nail-biter.