Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

I'm not arguing with your conservative thesis. I like it.

I'm just saying that there is justification for an upside and a downside.

The biggest downside is that the company is a scam, cooking the books. The second biggest downside is that it continues equity funding at 25% of A/S per year at sub 1 p/e for two or three more years.

As long as those aren't the case, and the company remains on the operational trajectory it has both set for itself and met, a good argument can be made that the downside is 50% appreciation for each of two years. This just arrives at a price about 1/2 its high when, as RD says, it was selling milk.