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Re: Aiming4 post# 335

Wednesday, 11/09/2005 2:11:28 AM

Wednesday, November 09, 2005 2:11:28 AM

Post# of 48122
Aiming, Yes, in the longer term it probably won't matter that much if you get in at 2.05 or 1.75. One problem I have is that to really load up on Cortex, I'll have to sell something else, and that makes waiting easier. Also in favor of waiting has been the steady timeline slippage for the Phase 2a results, now to Q1 (I'm now figuring ADHD results in January, AD results in February, and Shift Work in February or March). Another factor is the possibility of a pre-results decline like we've seen before (perhaps engineered / manipulated), coupled with some year end tax selling. So I don't see a compelling reason to buy big before year end. An out of the blue BP offer would be a reason, but no BP is going to make an offer prior to seeing the 3 month tox data, and that isn't due til closer to year end. On the other hand, since Cortex trades as thinly as it does, it wouldn't take much buying to push it back to the $2.50 range at any time. If just one mutual fund or a decent size investor or two want in, then up she goes. Of course on the other hand, a wannabe long could also torpedo us down to $1.50 to get a better entry point. Oh well, I figure I'll wait a while before getting back in big.

PTIE -- Upon further reflection, I reduced my PTIE position even more, to a mere 250 shares. There was conveniently no Q3 Conf call (the only stock I follow that didn't have one). They have a CIBC presentation tomorrow at 1:30, but of course the Q+A won't be webcast. The analysts are really going to grill Barbier on the Oxytrex endpoint question. Will the FDA be amenable to changing it at this late stage? Who knows. At this point, management has close to zero credibility IMO. The thing is, I still like Remoxy, and Oxytrex does have a lot going for it too (reduced tolerance, dependence, side effects). Management's lack of credibility makes it very tough to own this stock though.

Imclone -- goes back on my B-list. I never really liked the stock, but was swayed by everyone calling it a takeover play.

Genzyme, Gilead, and Teva -- these do look very good, though as Dew said, they aren't cheap at these levels.
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