I think the issue in error is one of $'s and %'s versus share price... while ignoring that there was a reverse. He quoted an average preferred share price of just under $0.70 ? But, look at a chart... and you don't see any evidence at all of any shares that were ever priced at anything near $0.70 ? I think his numbers aren't adjusted either for the reverse or the subsequent impact of announced changes in the divvie.
The opportunity to buy below the offering price... not shocking given the emergence of the OSG risks that they noted in the Oct 24 conf call you posted... and I think prior to blessing the offering as an OK deal, I'd noted it might also be useful to consider not putting more than half your intended investment into the deal ? Anything below $4 obviously looking like a good deal now.
Given where they are now... more given the combination of the OSG filing and the relatively anemic bounce in the economy and in shipping that we've seen up until recently... those who did put cash into the offering should be just as glad to have the opportunity to average down and not have the cash they put into the company being paid back out in divvies to those who didn't participate ?
The market seems to be considering DHT as less risky, these days, perhaps in part due to their efforts in conservation of cash.
I still see it as a best bet "survivor" of the current downturn. China has started shipping a lot more iron ore... some of which is due to seasonal factors... some of which is planned growth and evidence of a bottoming in the wake of tightening that's long past. China's plans for new hulls unlikely to be able to be matched with the pace of demand growth tied to a resumption of accelerated growth in China. Still probably need to see the U.S. grow demand faster than inflation plus growth in domestic production before you'll see day rates rising with any authority behind them.
If Japan succeeds in shrugging off malaise with a more aggressive and purposeful approach to easing... that could be enough to push the global economy back into something more like rough balance with the ability to sustain a faster pace in growth.
Global economic risks are increasing, still... generally... but, if Japan succeeds, at a point in time when Europe has determined to quit undermining others efforts... and nobody does anything inordinately stupid... you could see rates doing what they tend to do when things turn on a dime. If better coordinated easing results in "currency wars" instead of increased $ flowing into new investment and consumer demand growth ? Thus far we've not seen enough proof of inflation risk to have it alter market behavior.
When the bond bubble pops... where will all that money go to find a "safe" haven ? Well considered and properly diversified risks are probably a lot more safe for investors now than are "safe haven" investments in sovereign debt ?
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