Folks, I been posting for a month now about my reservation regarding APDN's future, I hope nobody is annoyed by that and please don't think that I have some agenda to bring PPS down, I am not that self-centered to think that my message board posting can affect share price...the reason I take time to post is only to bring more balanced view, over the past 10years of my investment activities I have seen too many times good people getting financially hurt by getting caught up in a hype and putting more money that they could afford to lose into a speculative stocks, and APDN at the moment is a speculative stock...
If you're holding a position with average price under .10 then your money is safe and you can ignore my postings, I am mostly sharing my view for people considering to open new large position at the current PPS
I been pretty bullish back in October and had about 600K shares, however I sold all of it during recent up swing in December as my outlook on the company has changed... I think the mandate revenue in 2013 will be little, in my calculations in 1M-1.5M range for 2013 while burn rate may increase due to activities to support the mandate, however in my opinion a lot of expectations from the mandate are built into the PPS, after just 300K in revs during tha last Q the PPS wasn't punished too hard as people thought, 'well, mandate didn't have a chance to kick in yet", that excuse will not work when company reports Q1 and Q2, in my opinion when investors will catch up with the idea that mandate will add just 1M to annual revs then PPS is likely to nosedive, this is why I don't see much upside to the stock in the next 3-6months, unless some game changing events happen like DLA expanding the mandate
as far as long term future for the company in 2014 and beyond it's hard to speculate what to expect...first, you'll see more dilution just to keep company in business, I agree that the DNA tag gives 100 accuracy and unbreakable and DLA testing results is confirmation of that, however as I stated before APDN invented only one leg which is the tag, that tag is useless until there is also a reader to go with the tag, I believe you will see significant growth only when handheld DNA authentication kits will become available.. keep in mind that some version of the technology existed since 2005, and after 7 years company still continue to burn your money and can't make profits, until field testers become available I see no reason to believe that APDN will show any explosive growth
as of now APDN has rather large market cap and large burn rate, I know bulls would tell you that potential is huge and if not tomorrow then next month the DLA will expand the mandate, every law enforcement agency in the world will be using DNA tags and every major brand will be knocking APDN's door asking for help, however so far it didn't happen and it may or may not happen in the near term, keep in mind this stock for now is a speculative play and driven by MMs and penny pumpers, wait until you see at least the first signs that some of the promises are materializing before putting a lot of money into this stock, keep this stock on the radar and you can buy-in when there is first contract with a major brand, or a major semiconductor company (Intel, TI, analog devices, etc) signs up, or NYPD announces the use of DNA tags, then you would know that dominoes beginning to fall...you may miss on the 20% gap up in the morning of such contract announcement but you would still have multi-bag good investment with a lot of less risk than today....
