Sprague Speak...Probably posted, Sorry if so, as I do not get to follow the Board, as often as I would like.
The Computer of the Future Jack M. Germain, newsfactor.com
Mon Oct 31, 4:19 PM ET
Hobbyists of the 1980s who became the early adopters of the bulky and underpowered boxes called personal computers had almost no clue how rapidly computer technology would develop. Given the rate of growth in computer power and miniaturization in the last quarter century, it is almost mind-boggling to think about what lies around the corner.
Remember the Jetsons, the popular futuristic cartoon family? Well, most computer visionaries see the fanciful Jetson home created by TV writers in the 1960s becoming a reality. "Imagine all sorts of appliances that know when to turn themselves on and off, toasters that respond to a spoken command or phones that automatically search electronic Yellow Pages for a pizza parlor and then place your order," said Gerald Flournoy, vice president of I.T. solutions for the Millennium Group.
It might be hard to imagine being tethered to computers any more closely than we are today with smartphones, wireless PDAs, and tablet PCs. But Flourney, along with other experts, sees the next major shift in computers as ushering in an era of even more portability and power.
Wireless Computing
James Lansford, CTO of semiconductor maker Alereon, is gearing up for a new generation of computers that will use wireless Ultra Wideband (UWB) technology to replace all of the cables that connect computer peripherals to the main PC. Think of this development as wireless USB.
"All wires will go away," Lansford said. "UWB will work like a personal area network with high data delivery at a low power."
He said the development will allow consumers to use computer peripherals the same way that Bluetooth technology operates with cell phones and laptop computers. Lansford likened the consumer benefit of UWB to that of Bluetooth on steroids, with the connection rate 500 times faster.
People will walk into a room with a UWB-enabled digital camera, for instance, and have it instantly connect to a computer and display photos. No longer will computer users have to plug devices in to USB ports to connect them. Everything, from printers and scanners to mice and keyboards, will be activated instantly.
This technology, according to Lansford, will be available next year in the form of wireless docking stations for UWB-enabled devices. "The bleeding edge of this technology will be on the shelves in time for next Christmas," he said, adding that the significant deployment will occur in 2007. The cost will follow the same pricing curve as consumers are experiencing now with Bluetooth and 802.11 wireless equipment, Lansford said.
Your Computer Suits You
The computer of the not-too-distant future, in additon to offering better wireless options, also will enable users to become wrapped up in their informational needs -- literally. Unlike today's mobile PCs that are portable, tomorrow's computer will consist of a string of wireless devices that we will actually step into, said Brian Young, vice president of information technology at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska.
"Wearable devices will transform the way we live and work with computers," he said. "We'll command them through dictation and voice modules."
With miniaturized PCs that piggyback as part of our clothing, traditional peripherals like keyboards and monitors will become input devices of the past. Instead, finger movements might serve as the interface for manipulating the CPU and eyeglass-like visors might provide the video display.
"We will have computer mobility over today's portability," said Young. "We will see less reliability on traditional battery power and more power sources based on solar and wind, coupled with physical movement."
Perhaps one of the biggest leaps in technology will be a phasing out of electricity to power the computers of the future. Young said it will take no more than the next five years to become free from electricity. Already there are students who roam the Creighton campus with backpacks lined with solar cells that constantly recharge the power supplies for their laptop computers, Young said.
Laptops Will Rule
Howard Locker, chief architect for desktop and mobile development at Lenovo, agreed with Young about the demise of the desktop computer in the near future. But he does not see the laptop becoming a dinosaur anytime soon. "Desktops will disappear. High-end servers will remain to accommodate enterprise needs. Everything else will be based on the laptop," Locker said.
The basic clamshell design of the laptop will remain a constant, he said, because of the limitations imposed by screen and keyboard size. "When it comes to form factor, the size of the laptop today is pretty much where it will be for quite a while. Cost and battery life will guarantee that."
Even the threat of smarter smartphones will not stamp out the laptop, Locker said. "People will still need their laptops. Even with all that a smartphone can do, the keyboard function will remain very limited. We will need both but won't always have to carry a laptop. The synergy between the two merging technologies is where the growth will be seen."
A major trend to make portable computing universal already is apparent. Wireless computing might soon be available everywhere with constant connectivity through ubiquitous hotspots. "Laptop users will always be connected," said Locker.
Newer wireless specifications will continue to reduce the need for wires and enhance mobility. For example, WiMAX, a new wireless specification that promises a range of dozens of miles and speeds rivaling cable and DSL broadband, will be a key development in portable computing, according to Locker.
Trusted Computing
Whatever direction the future of computing takes, consumers likely will continue to rely on networks and the Internet, which means the need for security and safety will remain critical.
According to Steven Sprague, president and CEO of Wave Systems (Nasdaq: WAVX - news), the benefits of trusted computing -- a series of specifications intended to improve computer security -- on the future PC will be tremendous, not only on standalone devices but also on networks.
"Security will be in all of our devices and that will enable the PC of the future to share and replicate data to all of our devices on the network all of the time," he said. "The PC of the future will provide a root of trust and will no longer rely on a user ID and password for security purposes because all authentication will be done machine to machine."
Sprague said this technology will create a future in which all computing devices are on the Internet and every application will verify that access is limited to the user's personal authorized devices.
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