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Friday, October 21, 2005 12:56:51 AM
ECCI.19.Wilma is getting huge.The eyewall from 4 miles now 35m
iles in diameter.And it could again be Category 5 Hurricane.
Read bold.Also 3 more tropical waves on Atlantic.
Look on the link.Scroll down to see them.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0
Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: October 20, 2005 10:53 p.m.
Category 4 Hurricane Wilma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which led to a reorganization of the storm. Wednesday evening, the eye of Wilma was only 4-8 miles in diameter, now it is 35 miles in diameter. The storm weakened during the cycle, with the minimum central pressure rising from 882 mb to 923 mb. However, the cycle has finished, and the eyewall is beginning to contract, and the storm is showing signs of intensification based on radar and satellite imagery. At the same time, Wilma is tracking across a deep warm layer of water, and some strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours, and Wilma could regain Category 5 status overnight.
WILMA, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
As of 11:00 P.M. EDT Thursday, Category 4 Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds near 150 mph. The storm was centered near 19.3 north, 86.0 west, or about 100 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma is moving northwestward at 6 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure remains at 923 millibars, or 27.26 inches of mercury. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the hurricane's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the hurricane's center. A buoy located 60 miles to the northeast of Wilma was reporting sustained winds of 77 mph and gusts to 89 mph.
A hurricane warning is in effect along the Mexican coast on the Yucatan Peninsula from San Felipe to Chetumal, including Cozumel and the nearby islands. A hurricane warning is also in effect for Swan Island. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect from west of San Felipe to Celestun. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from the border with Mexico, southward to Belize City. A tropical storm warning is in effect in Cuba for the provinces of La Habana, Ciudad De La Habana, Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane watch remains in effect for western Cuba, including the provinces of Matanzas, westward through Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Category 4 Hurricane Wilma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which led to a reorganization of the storm. Wednesday evening, the eye of Wilma was only 4-8 miles in diameter, now it is 35 miles in diameter. The storm weakened during the cycle, with the minimum central pressure rising from 882 mb to 923 mb. However, the cycle has finished, and the eyewall is beginning to contract, and the storm is showing signs of intensification based on radar and satellite imagery. At the same time, Wilma is tracking across a deep warm layer of water, and some strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours, and Wilma could regain Category 5 status overnight. A reconnaissance plane will be entering Wilma shortly after midnight, and will give us a better measurement of the intensity of Wilma.
High pressure in mid-levels of the atmosphere across the central and western Gulf of Mexico is weakening as an upper level trough of low pressure tracks across Missouri and this has turned Wilma more to the northwest. This upper trough of low pressure does not extend far enough south to influence Wilma entirely and it should pull away from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, causing Wilma to slow down near the Yucatan coast and make landfall near Cozumel during the day Friday. We think that Wilma will linger near the northeast Yucatan Friday night into Saturday. A more impressive upper trough will dive southeast into the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South Sunday and Sunday night, and this should give Wilma a bigger push to the northeast. We think that Wilma will make a second landfall along the southwest coast of Florida Sunday night and move into the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
Wilma will impact Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan coast overnight with bands of intense flooding rain and hurricane force wind gusts. During the day Friday these areas will feel the full fury of Wilma as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 200 mph which will cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches. Damaging winds and flooding rain will effect parts of western Cuba as well. Contact with land will weaken Wilma and we think that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 or 2 hurricane, and that it may reach southwest Florida as a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night. The storm could even make landfall in Florida as late as Monday, if it stalls over the Yucatan Friday night and Saturday.
Swells from Hurricane Wilma are coming up the chute into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and will be impacting the northeastern Gulf Coast as soon as Friday. Marine interests on the northeastern Gulf Coast should be prepared for minor coastal flooding and erosion beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.
All interests in the northwestern Caribbean, including western Cuba and the eastern Yucatan and over central and South Florida should keep in touch with the latest information on Wilma.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical waves are located along 58 west and along 66 west. These waves are moving west at about 4-6 degrees longitude per day. The only wave of concern is along 58 west, where we find a couple of small vortices. Also, the shear has relaxed over this wave and some model output suggests some development is possible in a few days.
iles in diameter.And it could again be Category 5 Hurricane.
Read bold.Also 3 more tropical waves on Atlantic.
Look on the link.Scroll down to see them.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0
Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: October 20, 2005 10:53 p.m.
Category 4 Hurricane Wilma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which led to a reorganization of the storm. Wednesday evening, the eye of Wilma was only 4-8 miles in diameter, now it is 35 miles in diameter. The storm weakened during the cycle, with the minimum central pressure rising from 882 mb to 923 mb. However, the cycle has finished, and the eyewall is beginning to contract, and the storm is showing signs of intensification based on radar and satellite imagery. At the same time, Wilma is tracking across a deep warm layer of water, and some strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours, and Wilma could regain Category 5 status overnight.
WILMA, AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
As of 11:00 P.M. EDT Thursday, Category 4 Hurricane Wilma had maximum sustained winds near 150 mph. The storm was centered near 19.3 north, 86.0 west, or about 100 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. Wilma is moving northwestward at 6 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure remains at 923 millibars, or 27.26 inches of mercury. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the hurricane's center. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles from the hurricane's center. A buoy located 60 miles to the northeast of Wilma was reporting sustained winds of 77 mph and gusts to 89 mph.
A hurricane warning is in effect along the Mexican coast on the Yucatan Peninsula from San Felipe to Chetumal, including Cozumel and the nearby islands. A hurricane warning is also in effect for Swan Island. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect from west of San Felipe to Celestun. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from the border with Mexico, southward to Belize City. A tropical storm warning is in effect in Cuba for the provinces of La Habana, Ciudad De La Habana, Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A hurricane watch remains in effect for western Cuba, including the provinces of Matanzas, westward through Pinar Del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Category 4 Hurricane Wilma underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which led to a reorganization of the storm. Wednesday evening, the eye of Wilma was only 4-8 miles in diameter, now it is 35 miles in diameter. The storm weakened during the cycle, with the minimum central pressure rising from 882 mb to 923 mb. However, the cycle has finished, and the eyewall is beginning to contract, and the storm is showing signs of intensification based on radar and satellite imagery. At the same time, Wilma is tracking across a deep warm layer of water, and some strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours, and Wilma could regain Category 5 status overnight. A reconnaissance plane will be entering Wilma shortly after midnight, and will give us a better measurement of the intensity of Wilma.
High pressure in mid-levels of the atmosphere across the central and western Gulf of Mexico is weakening as an upper level trough of low pressure tracks across Missouri and this has turned Wilma more to the northwest. This upper trough of low pressure does not extend far enough south to influence Wilma entirely and it should pull away from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, causing Wilma to slow down near the Yucatan coast and make landfall near Cozumel during the day Friday. We think that Wilma will linger near the northeast Yucatan Friday night into Saturday. A more impressive upper trough will dive southeast into the Tennessee Valley and the Deep South Sunday and Sunday night, and this should give Wilma a bigger push to the northeast. We think that Wilma will make a second landfall along the southwest coast of Florida Sunday night and move into the Atlantic Ocean on Monday.
Wilma will impact Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan coast overnight with bands of intense flooding rain and hurricane force wind gusts. During the day Friday these areas will feel the full fury of Wilma as the eye moves across this region with winds of 150 mph gusting as high as 200 mph which will cause catastrophic damage. A storm surge of up to 15 feet will occur near and just north of the center of where Wilma makes landfall. Wilma will continue to blast northeast Yucatan into Saturday as rainfall could exceed 20-40 inches. Damaging winds and flooding rain will effect parts of western Cuba as well. Contact with land will weaken Wilma and we think that it will reach the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 3 or 2 hurricane, and that it may reach southwest Florida as a Category 2 hurricane Sunday night. The storm could even make landfall in Florida as late as Monday, if it stalls over the Yucatan Friday night and Saturday.
Swells from Hurricane Wilma are coming up the chute into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and will be impacting the northeastern Gulf Coast as soon as Friday. Marine interests on the northeastern Gulf Coast should be prepared for minor coastal flooding and erosion beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend.
All interests in the northwestern Caribbean, including western Cuba and the eastern Yucatan and over central and South Florida should keep in touch with the latest information on Wilma.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, tropical waves are located along 58 west and along 66 west. These waves are moving west at about 4-6 degrees longitude per day. The only wave of concern is along 58 west, where we find a couple of small vortices. Also, the shear has relaxed over this wave and some model output suggests some development is possible in a few days.
DARE TO DREAM.LISTEN TO IT AT HARD TIMES.
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