Intel Corp (INTC)

[ibc]

Didn't you see the post about 3.3% decrease in desktop and 3.5% increase in laptop sales?

Those were HP's numbers for Q/Q growth for the back to school quarter and well below seasonal. Furthermore, year over year growth was atrocious with PSG down 14%.

Intel's own Q4 guidance is for half of the normal seasonal growth into Q4 from an already weak Q3. This is not good when you've built up fab capacity with a certain level of expected demand. In fact, 2/3 of the gross margin decline is a result of excess capacity charges.

Q4 EPS year over year is down from $0.68 to $0.49 (est) and last year there was a hard-drive shortage.

Win-8/ultrabook/convertible doesn't seem to be a big driver of demand for the holidays. It remains to be seen if there will be a snap-back in demand for Q1, but it's hard to make up for lost holiday sales as those dollars (as part of a fixed discretionary budget) have been spent on other items such as non-Intel tablets and phones.