XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA)

[xlt leader]

I disagree with your assessment. Here's why

If VRNG wins, they'll get damages, interest and royalties. At this late point, a settlement or buyout will probably be close to the same price as a trial win (my opinion). That amount plus the assets they already have (cash, patents and Facetones) divided by the number of shares will equal the share price. This will be the share price and not added on to the current share price (yes, there is about $300 million already "baked in").

This is not reasonable or probable. Where do you get about $300 million baked in? Second this is not a simple mathematical equation. There is the matter of the large short position which has started to realize this isn't a one way trade recently. This alone will move the price higher than your expectations. Third there is the ZTE patents which you ascribe zero value. Then there is the fact that with a win you will have a company with a large war chest, capable of buying more patents and attacking from strength. This fact will attract institutional investors and will put a premium into the share price.

So I respectfully disagree with your analysis. The swings will be wild but the price will not be simply award divided by shares o/s of this I have no doubt.