XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA)

[fidcow]

Nobody gets it right.

I've seen upteen million guesses at what the share price will be if VRNG wins. Longs are overly optimistic (call it being delusional or greedy bastards, whatever) and shorts fabricate. People get the royalty rate all wrong and seem to pull numbers out of their ass. Back door willfuls, crazy high multiples, wrong number of outstanding shares, etc.

If VRNG wins, they'll get damages, interest and royalties. At this late point, a settlement or buyout will probably be close to the same price as a trial win (my opinion). That amount plus the assets they already have (cash, patents and Facetones) divided by the number of shares will equal the share price. This will be the share price and not added on to the current share price (yes, there is about $300 million already "baked in").

Applying a multiple on the end of this is pure speculation. As VRNG proceeds against ZTE (and against other NOK infringers), and if they proceed against MSFT and YHOO, then this multiple should increase. Comparing VRNG to VHC is also a mistake.

Finally, I can not understand why longs pay any heed at all to the shorts (specifically and in general), which are trying to manipulate them like puppets. Why even respond to a basketball14 or a rainmaker when they're simply trying to pull the strings? I imagine longs were easy teased as children.