No offense guys, but I have had this same conversation with some of the board members when Ariad's MC was 750 mil. You, Dew and JQ all felt Ariad was overvalued at that point as well.
Agreed that at 4 bil MC, Ariad's PPS is lofty and assumes a lot of Ponatinib. Also agreed that a safety issue could arise (prob not likely in CML at this point) and that would crush Ariad's share price. However, on the other side of the bet, Ponatinib could very well become a mega blockbuster and that $100 price tag could be achieved in due time.
Ponatinib is a better drug than Gleevec (generic or not), Tasigna and Sprycel. You kow what the KOL's woud like to see in the front line and now you are starting to hear of a ground swell of rumblings of oncologist's discussing it as well. Stifel Nicolaus's price raise discussed this very thing the other day.
Point is that this caries a substantial amount of risk for a very substantial payoff.
Edit: 113 is a huge wild card and another discussion entirely.
