Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)

[THisKIRK]

BIOF MAY BE A PUMP TO DUMP TO DILUTE SHARES BACK DOWN THIS MONDAY AND THE WEEK.

Good morning to you longs and shorts, just some food for thought on BIOF before our opening bell. Over the early weekend I made a post on BIOF which may draw some hope for the longs but more fuel for the shorts.

Link found here: http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=79841731.

Summary: Slow Death...

To my honest opinion I see BIOF going to trade south a slow decline. Reviewing the whole 5 year since its IPO in 2007, 100day and 200day movement and looking over the SEC filing, BIOF had yet to turn out a positive year. Despite the high demand of ethanol and all random event had little or somewhat change to the pricing of BIOF. For long term investors they want to see small growth over time, not spikes of volume then seeing newer lows over time. From that we can forecast what’s going to happen within months ahead. With that said the only way I see BIOF turning around this week is a sudden merger or some serious stock manipulation. Look at the chart of BIOF in Oct 2010 and Nov 2011 looks similar? Large spike and newer lows? Both shows what has happened before when BIOF had to rebalance its margin numbers and gave shares away to balance them. The result was the same for BIOF the quick spike up and the slow death began. As a full time investor it's wise to cut losses and move on. In my early years of trading two key factors change my ways of trading. #1 "Don't be greedy". If you’re up cash out, wait for the stock to see growth then move back in. There always an opportunity over the horizon with time. #2 "Don't get married to a stock”. Hoping for a turn around is not healthy for a trader. Say a stock XYZ was trading at $10 and falls below $5 bucks a share. The probability of XYZ going back to $10 is small over time.

One key fact that had me realizes that BIOF will continue to pile the shorts and lose long term investor iN the written fact of. David Einhorn "True up agreement" the process of a company rebalancing debt or ensure its "large stock holders" to hold their large position despite their losses in order to rebalance the company's business structure. This is not healthy for the company or the general stock holder as a hole due to less floats of shares we can see more stock manipulation more down the line.

Another increasing blow that will hurt BIOF is the newer, cheaper, more efficient ethanol production from the raw material SUGAR. Comparing the price of corn and sugar on the commodities side, we see corn roaring higher and faster than sugar. By the time corn hits a certain price range BIOF would have less profit to find newer ways to extract ethanol from corn; now making them less competitive, less innovative and less attractive, resulting less growth over all.

KEY SUPPORT.

RUNNING UP
(Based from 9/21/2012 closing price of $7.14) If BIOF breaks above $7.20 see a gap to $7.38, if it breaks $7.50 see $7.72, if breaks $8.02 see ($8.21-8.34)

RUNNING DOWN
(Based from 9/21/2012 closing price of $7.14) If BIOF falls below $7.01 see a dip to $6.80, if it falls below $6.66 see a dip down to $6.09 see it dip down to ($5.67-$5.78)

Like always (Fill in the Blank) trading.