Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)

[THisKIRK]

BIOF ANALYSIS FOR BOTH LONGS AND SHORTS.


I would like to take the time to go over what I see with BIOF. Using Fibonacci retracement from a low of $3.09 to a peak of $10.75 here are the key levels of resistance / support to both running up and running down.
RUNNING UP
(Based from 9/21/2012 closing price of $7.14) If BIOF breaks above $7.20 see a gap to $7.38, if it breaks $7.50 see $7.72, if breaks $8.02 see ($8.21-8.34)

RUNNING DOWN
(Based from 9/21/2012 closing price of $7.14) If BIOF falls below $7.01 see a dip to $6.80, if it falls below $6.66 see a dip down to $6.09 see it dip down to ($5.67-$5.78)

http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=biof

Reviewing the bottom chart on this website shown above it shows that BIOF has decrease “strong hands” and the shorts increased their stake.


Comparison from THURSDAY SEPT 21 VS FRIDAY Sept 22
SEPT THURSDAY 21 2012
In Numbers
41983(SHORT) VS 245947(LONG)
In Percent
14.62% (SHORT) VS 85.48% (LONG)
Sept FRIDAY 22 2012
In Number
140754(SHORT) vs 200918(LONG)
In Percent
41.93% (SHORT) vs 58.17% (LONG)

Comparing Thursday and Friday days we can see the shorts from Thursday increasing their stake in shorts from 14.62% to 41.93% a gain of 286% and comparing the longs we see a loss from 85.48 to 58.17 a loss of 146%.

Giving history from BIOF dating back 5years there’s more red month than green months.
39 RED months VS 25 GREEN MONTHS to be exact, given all the factors in a span of 5years just to be fair. All the pump and dumps, the news, the merges, the demand and less demand for ethanol etc, the probability of this month to be green for the longs will be 40% and 60% being Red.

Now looking at BIOF in a short term investment of 100 days, from 6/12/2012 to 9/22/2012 there’s 30 green days vs. 42 red days not counting the weekends and counting the holiday half days but only trading days. That’s 41.66% Vs. 58.34%. we will see this stock trade sideways lower and lower IMO. What I see here is that his stock has seen so many levels in prices we can’t really see a good price to enter in. That’s why I see this stock going lower and lower volume as this stock falls right after a spike of volume.

IMO I see fridays early spike up was people shorting creating a supporting bid, and preparing for something this coming week. Im expecting no news this week even reducing the volume even more. Typical this stock only trades at a 80-150k volume daily average in a 5 year span counting 300 days span


Here’s the information I gather and from here I’ll let you choose where this stock will dip or run because at the end of the day BIOF as a company can always make money despite the price of the stock. It's us the investors that lose at the end, whether we are shorting or going long.
Like always (Fill in the Blank) trading.