Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I think the exel drug is active, so it would be a tempered bust.

Yes, I think it's active as well.

The risk in my view is more operational: exel management being slow / careless in extracting maximum value for shareholders. If they do a good job you could see 2-4x current valuation at some point, but you could easily see 0.5 - 0.75x also.

I think valuation may actually be closer to $1B after recent financing, so it's not exactly dirt cheap to me. But, sure, if cabo does well going forward there is certainly upside potential. I think we need to pay more attention to their MEK partnered with Roche as well though, for now, it just seems apparent that Roche is developing in a melanoma indication, which is much smaller than say NSCLC, even KRAS NSCLC. Interesting to see if Roche expands the indication for the MEK.

After a few local conversations, I'm rather comfortable that mdvn's drug will sell nicely.

I'm on board with this.

Seeing 1.5 - 2x current valuation is, as far as single drug biotechs go, a 'safe' bet ... But no way do we see 0.5x of the current valuation.

If the breast cancer indication pans out, I'd think there is more upside potential than 2x at some point down the road, even at current $4B market cap. Though I think there was some negative data presented at ESMO for Zytiga in breast cancer indication so perhaps some may question if this will carry over to MDVN and Xtandi as well. Still, even without breast cancer indication, MDVN could well be a reasonable bet down the road even at current valuation.