AI
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| Alias Born | 04/28/2004 |
Monday, September 17, 2012 10:14:11 PM
Exel / mdvn:
I think the exel drug is active, so it would be a tempered bust. The risk in my view is more operational: exel management being slow / careless in extracting maximum value for shareholders. If they do a good job you could see 2-4x current valuation at some point, but you could easily see 0.5 - 0.75x also.
After a few local conversations, I'm rather comfortable that mdvn's drug will sell nicely. Seeing 1.5 - 2x current valuation is, as far as single drug biotechs go, a 'safe' bet
... But no way do we see 0.5x of the current valuation.
I think the exel drug is active, so it would be a tempered bust. The risk in my view is more operational: exel management being slow / careless in extracting maximum value for shareholders. If they do a good job you could see 2-4x current valuation at some point, but you could easily see 0.5 - 0.75x also.
After a few local conversations, I'm rather comfortable that mdvn's drug will sell nicely. Seeing 1.5 - 2x current valuation is, as far as single drug biotechs go, a 'safe' bet
... But no way do we see 0.5x of the current valuation. 
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