Hi ocroft, your method seems interesting from the perspective of profiting from upcycles.
Below is the Buy / Sell advice from a backtest done a few minutes ago in AI (Automatic Investor), using GSC.TO (GSS on one of the US exchanges).
Standard A.I.M. parameters were used:
Buy Safe = 10
Sell Safe = 10
Minimum Trade = 5
You'll notice that there is a large number of consecutive Buys, and then finally there is a Sell on Sep. 5, 2012.
If I understand correctly, with your method, one would not have bought shares until a price is reached where Buy Advice = $0, i.e. Portfolio Control = Stock Value. Backtesting in AI doesn't show when that occurs. Are you using a spreadsheet with automatic data feed that shows when Buy Advice = $0?
Also, in the example below, between Sep. 8, 2010 and July 23, 2012, could there have been some false signals where Buy Advice = $0, indicating that it is time to buy, but then the downtrend continued?
Thanks,
Jack
08-Sep-10 START shares @ $5.1400 own 1,361 valued @ $6,995.54 Cash: $7,004.46 Portfolio Value: $14,000.00
18-Nov-10 BUY 93 shares @ $4.4000 own 1,454 valued @ $6,397.60 Cash: $6,585.27 Portfolio Value: $12,982.87
25-Nov-10 BUY 83 shares @ $4.2800 own 1,537 valued @ $6,578.36 Cash: $6,220.04 Portfolio Value: $12,798.40
11-Jan-11 BUY 79 shares @ $4.1700 own 1,616 valued @ $6,738.72 Cash: $5,880.62 Portfolio Value: $12,619.34
18-Jan-11 BUY 171 shares @ $3.8700 own 1,787 valued @ $6,915.69 Cash: $5,208.86 Portfolio Value: $12,124.55
25-Jan-11 BUY 234 shares @ $3.5800 own 2,021 valued @ $7,235.18 Cash: $4,361.15 Portfolio Value: $11,596.33
02-Mar-11 BUY 578 shares @ $2.9600 own 2,599 valued @ $7,693.04 Cash: $2,640.28 Portfolio Value: $10,333.32
09-Mar-11 BUY 328 shares @ $2.8700 own 2,927 valued @ $8,400.49 Cash: $1,688.93 Portfolio Value: $10,089.42
20-Apr-11 BUY 155 shares @ $2.8500 own 3,082 valued @ $8,783.70 Cash: $1,237.19 Portfolio Value: $10,020.89
05-May-11 BUY 254 shares @ $2.7000 own 3,336 valued @ $9,007.20 Cash: $541.40 Portfolio Value: $9,548.60
12-May-11 BUY 247 shares @ $2.6000 own 3,583 valued @ $9,315.80 Cash: -$110.79 Portfolio Value: $9,205.01
10-Jun-11 BUY 472 shares @ $2.3800 own 4,055 valued @ $9,650.90 Cash: -$1,244.14 Portfolio Value: $8,406.76
17-Jun-11 BUY 569 shares @ $2.2000 own 4,624 valued @ $10,172.80 Cash: -$2,505.93 Portfolio Value: $7,666.87
04-Jul-11 BUY 326 shares @ $2.1600 own 4,950 valued @ $10,692.00 Cash: -$3,220.08 Portfolio Value: $7,471.92
28-Sep-11 BUY 1,209 shares @ $1.8100 own 6,159 valued @ $11,147.79 Cash: -$5,418.36 Portfolio Value: $5,729.43
15-Dec-11 BUY 689 shares @ $1.7600 own 6,848 valued @ $12,052.48 Cash: -$6,640.99 Portfolio Value: $5,411.49
22-Dec-11 BUY 746 shares @ $1.6600 own 7,594 valued @ $12,606.04 Cash: -$7,889.34 Portfolio Value: $4,716.70
14-Mar-12 BUY 567 shares @ $1.6100 own 8,161 valued @ $13,139.21 Cash: -$8,812.20 Portfolio Value: $4,327.01
19-Apr-12 BUY 902 shares @ $1.5000 own 9,063 valued @ $13,594.50 Cash: -$10,175.19 Portfolio Value: $3,419.31
03-May-12 BUY 1,259 shares @ $1.3800 own 10,322 valued @ $14,244.36 Cash: -$11,922.60 Portfolio Value: $2,321.76
25-May-12 BUY 3,659 shares @ $1.0900 own 13,981 valued @ $15,239.29 Cash: -$15,920.90 Portfolio Value: -$681.61
15-Jun-12 BUY 1,310 shares @ $1.1000 own 15,291 valued @ $16,820.10 Cash: -$17,371.89 Portfolio Value: -$551.79
23-Jul-12 BUY 845 shares @ $1.0800 own 16,136 valued @ $17,426.88 Cash: -$18,294.48 Portfolio Value: -$867.60
05-Sep-12 SELL 1,412 shares @ $1.4900 own 14,724 valued @ $21,938.76 Cash: -$16,200.59 Portfolio Value: $5,738.17
06-Sep-12 LAST shares @ $1.4800 own 14,724 valued @ $21,791.52 Cash: -$16,200.59 Portfolio Value: $5,590.93
