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Sunday, September 02, 2012 1:04:51 PM
As far as there being 'value' here - almost all indicators point to that being a fact - at least in the long run (window greater than 1.5 years from this point). Some other more vague indicators suggest that value will begin to appear in a shorter window.
At the moment - other than insiders, who are not sharing their inside information for obvious and legal reasons - nobody out here knows what is going on within the near term, and can speculate more concretely in the longer term.
This - of course - is frustrating to those who have either got in now expecting a short-term flip for cash, or for those who have been here at least as long as I have (Feb-March 2010 in my case - although I watched before entering at that point), and for the pre-bankruptcy holders,.... we want to know what is happening. I want to know too - but my window for return at this point isn't for anything measured in weeks or months. I'm here until at least the 2 years post-BK when some changes can happen without seriously blowing up the NOL values.
Your options here remain,.... hold what you got and see what's happening, add if you think there is value here and are planning on holding,...
Or sell for what you can now,.... and try and jump back in later as the information and confidence in where WMIH is going rise - assuming they do.
If WMIH goes down in the short-term, with no particular reason for that decrease other than impatience on the part of some investors here,... I will view it as a buying opportunity. Bad news actually comes out (as opposed to the neutral and limited information we have now),... I'll consider selling and moving on too.
It really is that simple. You just have to decide what your risk/reward outlook looks like and play this game accordingly. One of the best ways to avoid having to 'face' people and worry about making ends meet in investing is to never bet the rent/grocery/utilities money on stocks. They are always at risk, even relatively safe ones can lose you money.
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.”
- Leo Nikolaevich Tolstoy
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