@Rupert
Don't get me wrong, I think AMD's strategy worked and works
fine. They reached impressive mindshare from their Opteron
lines and I'm sure, this will also play an important role,
when it comes to new OEM-Business (desktop) Designwins. But
keep in mind, when we stay at this unimpressive volume levels,
we will be in very very bad shape at the end of next year,
when costs will go up. AMD's cash will not go out fast, thats
clear, but higher stock prices would be a dream.
I'm seeing now the impressive trend with Opteron, for which
I hoped already a year ago. Sentiment accelerated slowly, too
slowly and volume lagged by a great margin, when we are
looking at the AMAZING CPU lineup. Opteron trashed all the Intel stuff
and what happened? IBM just introduced new Xeon servers.
Thats nothing new and with new designs, Opteron will not gain
share fast, or better said, faster than it would possible.
Many OEM's are sticking their head in the sand and playing
and playing with crappy outdated Xeon designs. So they are thin-
king along the same line, as WBMW always try to spread here.
It will change, all will change ... we HOPE!!! all will
change ... what happened in reality - NOTHING! What happened
at the OEM's? Imho, NOT ENOUGH!!! But heh, I'm seeing much
much more designs coming this and the next quarters, which
will cause heavy (extended) Opteron consumption. So I'm not really thinking
about Opteron just because the development is so strong and
just because we (AMD) have to concentrate now on another
battle-frontlines - Mobile and Desktop.
Its my feeling, that AMD will have to play hard to gain small
share on the mobile front. Credit where credit is due to -
Intel has a great mobile-lineup and with Yonah coming, this
will not change. Sentiment to Intel stuff is big, so AMD has
to put really HOT! stuff on the table. Seems to me, that this
isn't possible. We could walk side by side when it comes to
performance and power consumption (with load), but that will
be not enough to convince OEM's to switch in a big way. It
will happen, but slowly.
And thats why I'm talking about the desktop and MMC stuff.
AMD is in front, has by far the greatest stuff with the best
platform - so it should be easy to gain share on ALL fronts -
consumer and business here. (monopol practises beside) We have
to talk about what volume we are speaking. I remember every-
one to think about that. PIV/Celeron will be the main! product
for all desktops through 2006 and what could we expect (new)
here? Answer: nothing. This should open the eyes by everyone.
Hope this clears something out.
AI
