MARKET RESEARCH
Wireless Data Users to Reach 1.3 Billion by 2004
New research by Cahners In-Stat Group forecasts wireless usage.
The use of wireless data technology is expected to skyrocket in the next four years, according to Cahners In-Stat Group. The high-tech market research firm predicts that the wireless data market will grow from about 170 million subscribers worldwide in 2000 to greater than 1.3 billion in 2004. As a result, more than 1.5 billion handsets, personal digital assistants, and Internet appliances are expected to be equipped with wireless capabilities by the end of 2004.
According to Dave Jackson, senior analyst for In-Stat's Wireless Data service, "Messaging will be the primary driver of wireless data adoption over the next few years. We estimate that the number of wireless messages sent per month will balloon from 3 billion in December 1999 to 244 billion by December 2004. Other features such as mobile or m-commerce applications, entertainment, real-time financial information, travel, and location-based (L411) information services -- getting directions to the closest restaurant or ATM, for instance -- will also be popular but will take longer to reach the market." However, In-Stat believes that the success of wireless data will not be an absolute given. To ensure that wireless data catches on, carriers must deploy new infrastructure and install new equipment to enable location-based services, high-level security, micro-payment options, and detailed billing.
Other findings
The potential for wireless data is enormous. In the United States alone, over 60 million households have wired Internet access and more than 100 million wireless phones.
The high rate of Internet penetration in the United States could discourage some from subscribing to wireless data services, as many Americans are accustomed to high-speed wireline connections to the Web that deliver graphic-rich data. Wireless data can't match those speeds. But many will still opt for the technology to gain increased mobility and convenience.
Due to lower PC and wired Internet penetration rates and higher wired line prices, many Europeans and Japanese aren't used to high-speed Web service and their primary access to the Internet or e-mail is through their mobile phones. Europeans will have additional incentive to use wireless data services when third generation (3G) wireless technology-boosting mobile data throughput from 9.6 kbps up to 384 kbps -- becomes available in 2002-2004.
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