investtoski ... I think anyone who takes a stake in a penny stock who's even remotely objective, especially a small oil company with very little revenue (to date) does so knowing that it is a major league spec play, a situation where someone is essentially swinging for the fences.
If the company executes on even a fraction of its leases and this subsequently hits the books, ultimately earnings will drive the stock price. That's just the unmistakeable plain and simple truth of the matter. I do find cool's posts entertaining and I understand a lot of people closely follow and study charts. There's nothing wrong with that. But again, at the end of the day, I am a firm believer that true, sustainable growth and stock price appreciation will be due to earnings. In other words, I think in the end, earnings will be the tale of the tape with any company's stock price, not fundamentals.
I too have concerns about Treaty. I too have some reservations and by nature I'm a skeptic. But I felt there were more positives working for the company than negatives working against it, which is why I began purchasing big blocks of shares in April. After talking to numerous people both in and out of the company (none of whom reside or post on an Internet message board) and doing my due diligence, it was my determination that the company's lease holdings or concesssions, drilling equipment and potential of hitting merely a fraction of its projected numbers were worth more than the $0.03-0.05 trading figures.
Treaty doesn't have to set the world on fire. It needs to execute, watch its debt and avoid bad mistakes. So many companies in Treaty's position attempt to make a big splash, and in doing so they embark on a culture of self-destructive habits, usually beginning with elaborate PRs and or the publicizing of information that mispresents reality.
Transparency and results are what shareholders want. At the end of the day, that's all people care about. As former SMU head football coach Ron Meyer once said, "Don't tell me about the labor, just show me the baby." And as Ronald Reagan once said, "Trust, then verify."
If the company says it's selling oil, and reports as much, then I believe it, then I verify. If the company says it's bought a rig valued at over $800,000, then I believe it, then I verify. If the company says it's purchased additional concessions, then I believe it, then I verify. These are tangible, provable items that anyone with due diligence can verify. Do I personally place a tremendous amount of value in projections? No. And I own stock in KOG, COP, SSN and DEJ as well. I can say the same for their PRs or presentations which often contain projections. I'm more interested in tangible assets, leases, equipment, execution, and then where earnings are following execution. Because those things, in my view, represent sustainble, legitimate upside.
Treaty is a very intriguing situation in my opinion. I'm excited about some of the things I'm seeing within the company now and I look forward to the future. I have no idea where the stock price is in a year or two years. But again, it is my opinion that if this company executes on even a fraction of its projections, then every current Treaty shareholder will make money. Personally, I have no regrets for taking a stake in the company.
Just my two cents, for what it's worth.
