I suppose I am presenting a world view, as you say, with some implications about rationality and fundamentals willing out in the end. If I didn't hold this view, I'm not sure how I'd invest in anything.
Maybe just become a day trader.
What you are presenting is a correlation that has no more cause and effect than any other correlation. If the sentiment toward Chicoms in general doesn't change, then I don't believe a change in any commodities index will help. The sentiment is a better correlation than commodities or gold imo, especially in the long run.
Better yet, in the very long run, the far better correlation is the company's performance. Because, using even your example, no matter how bad every other corollary is, if the company earns $2, the share price will at least double.
Of course, it may also increase 10 or 20 fold.
In general, I prefer to look at independent variables that are closer to the dependent variable, because it is intuitively more reasonable to me.
