InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[techinvester]

Thanks OD for the update. My primary concern is FRAND establishment in an ever changing patent and standard setting environment as well as the challenge of IP only providers versus manufacturers. As highlighted below in an old post by BlueTower (dated but relevant for discussion), investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67396375 “experts” can’t agree on patent numbers. Agreeing on burdened versus unburdened patent value is more challenging. FYI, see Data's post for latest essential LTE RAN patent estimates. investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=77011745

Government involvement you cited brings problem recognition but I don’t see expedient resolution. Without a hammer similar to an import ban, I struggle to see why Nokia and others will not continue their delay tactics. I also struggle to see how fair identification of most major players is performed, invitations with coercion to attend a FRAND setting meeting(s), and setting of FRAND rates is completed in a timely manner. Patent fragmentation similar to the Intel sell makes the task more difficult in the future.

I hoped Jobs vowing he would destroy Android would promote either Apple or Google (or a consortium) to consumate the purchase of IDCC which would have provided rapid IDCC price appreciation (My exit price was north of $82 by ~25%. I never envisioned price to go below pre-SA.). “I will spend my last dying breath, if I need to, and I will spend every penny of Apple’s $40 billion in the bank, to right this wrong,” Jobs told Isaacson. “I’m willing to go thermonuclear war on this,” he said, even if he had to use all of Apple’s cash in the process. Read column about Jobs and Android.articles.marketwatch.com/2012-04-19/commentary/31362193_1_oracle-al-hilwa-android

If the risk raised by the Intel patent sale does not accelerate IDCC licensing, it MAY be years before we see FRAND resolution driving the IDCC share price. I hope not but that is my concern. JMHO Feedback welcome from all.

From BlueTower
#1 -- Informa Telecoms & Media, % of LTE Patents, 5/18/10
#2 -- TechIPm, % of Essential LTE Patents, 1/1/11
#3 -- ZTE, % of Essential LTE Patents, 1/31/11
#4 -- Ocean Tomo, Quality and relevance vs Nortel Patents, 4/7/11
#5 -- Cowen Group, % of LTE Patents, 8/31/11
#6 -- Peter Misek (Jefferies), % of Essential LTE Patents, 7/21/11
#7 -- Peter Misek (Jefferies), % of Essential LTE Patents, 9/21/11

           #1    #2    #3     #4    #5    #6    #7		  
    
  LG         7    27     6      ?     9     8    23  
  QCOM      19    25    13    High   14    29    21  
  IDCC      21    11    24    High    9    16     9  
  Nokia      7    10     9    Low    11    13     9  
  Samsung    8    10     9    Low     9     9     9   
  Intel      ?     ?     ?    High    ?     ?     ?  
  ATT        ?     ?     ?    High    ?     ?     ?  
  Ericson    7     1     8    Low    13     3     2  
  Huawei     9     1     8      ?     9     9     1  
  MMI        ?     3     ?    Low     ?     ?     9  
  Nortel     ?     2     ?    High    ?     3     4

I listed every company that was in anyone's "top five" (plus MMI and Nortel for obvious reasons) and then recorded how they were reported in all of the reports.