Capt & Bill--thanks for the analysis and commentary, very good as always. Where to start?
Entry points--I've had many that looked about right to me, but at the current time I appear to be a bit short sighted.
Siemens and GE--I agree that they are positioned for a larger propulsion system whether it be power plants, ship's, jets, etc. I was having a difficult time wrapping my head around a sewage treatment plant so large that a GE turbine would be appropriate. I agree that Capstone has a niche in that market, especially considering the cascade use of exhaust heat for sterilization of effluent. I wondered why the article mentioned the three other players for larger requirements as you could start stacking C1000s in there. Perhaps it is the initial cost, who knows?
Charts, trend lines, golden crosses, ad nauseum, would appear useless in a heavily manipulated stock. All I know is upward trending lines are a whole lot more fun than the downward ones. I don't short so have missed out on a lot of fun lately.
Cash burn--I would hate to see that diluted 100 million go up in smoke. That's a lot of green, especially since it doesn't seem so long ago that DJ stated that there wouldn't be a need to raise additional cash. Pie charts showing potential markets and expected capture percentage are pretty, but results are more attractive. I think that Capstone needs to focus their R&D and sales force on projects that they know the product works well in and sale sale sale. After profits start building a cash stash then start working on the automobile, buses, and BS pie in the sky projects. Don't spread too thin or you will fall through the ice.
The BOD should take a close look at the pay DJ is getting and determine if his performance is worth it. If profits do come by December 2012 fine, if not... money talks and BS walks. Same goes for the rest of upper management. Stock incentives are a great way to encourage the manufacturing staff to stick around, but if those options are constantly underwater where is the incentive?
This is certainly a story stock and the narrative continues. The biggest game changer since the inception of Capstone is the shale gas "discoveries" in the last 3 years. The door is wide open right now and if management can't execute in this environment we longs are toast. When I read about duel fuel and tri-fuel diesels penetrating the marine, data, trucking, bus, and rail industries to name a few, begs the question; is the cost differential, between a micro-tubine and a diesel, taking into account the vast difference in maintenance and efficiency between the two, the reason these folks continue with reciprocating engines, or is it the well known fact that a diesel will "last forever" when maintained properly, especially so if using a clean fuel like methane. How long will a Capstone micro-turbine last?
Not really being conversant in Fuel Cell technology I do read about a lot of money and R&D being spent on them. Each data centers being built using fuel cells means a missed opportunity to me. This game has to change, and change quickly, or we will be left in the dust.
I am still an avid believer in Capstone, my holdings are proof of that, and I really don't want to take a bath on this investment. Usually my instincts are correct, but my timing is off. For all of us longs I sure hope to see some positive news 9 days from now. The time to produce is now. If we can't do it with 2+ dollar gas now, I see no reason to believe we can do it in the future. The thirst for natural gas has never been higher in the world than it is today. JMHFO
