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Re: RallyTheMarket post# 14371

Saturday, 04/14/2012 12:32:39 PM

Saturday, April 14, 2012 12:32:39 PM

Post# of 26138
There are a number of possible catalyst. The problem is all the positive news hasn't clarified when revenue and how much can be expected. The market has written off Libigel and we have not seen any revenue to speak of. News allowing them properly project future revenues is required. That is where a Libigel NDA allowed for a large projected revenue stream bringing in buyers.

I believe positive PR regarding FDA meeting on Libigel would get us to there. Info on the Teva deal would be nice to allow for projected revenue(ie.Teva will launch generic Bio-t-gel with a date) Any revenue from Teva for approval or side deal with Abbott?

I can't see them holding it down any longer, if the PR makes reference to FDA outlining a path forward for the Libigel targeting cardiovascular disease in menopausal women (this would be huge). Heart Disease is a market of approx. $50 billion. It would pop up to a point where a larger number of serious institutional investors would be buying.

A phase II GVAX trial with BMS. This partnership would give it the legitimacy it needs to get over the hump.

Remember analyst were estimating a 1 year target of $6.00 pps primarily on the back of Libigel. In the meantime GVAX has resurrected and was nominated as one of the 5 best vaccines. If Libigel is revived and the CV benefit is added, the stock is definitely worth a lot more then $6 pps. Investors will be clamoring to get in which will push up the price rapidly.

They may be waiting for guidance by FDA and are cautious before announcing anything.

In all honesty I believe something is going on behind the scenes. Contrary to what many believe this company has a very capable management team and a well experience Board. Especially when you consider the following:

1- The silence on the part of the company regarding 70 % reduction CV. They have two patent applications in relation to it. They also have a patent application for mass production of Libigel. All filled in 2012.

2- They have not said anything about the vaccine nominations for best vaccine and best licensing agreements.

3- A number of larger companies are looking for acquisitions. Ealier this year Bristol Myers Squibb bought Inhibitex for $2.5 billion and a few weeks ago Amylin share holders turned down a $3.5 billion offer from BMS.

4 Since management has a number of shares and options anything they do that impacts share price also impacts them.

For all we know a deal may be in place and the results of the FDA meeting will be used to dictate the price.





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