Rambus (RMBS)

[Skeptic]

Hi Pruf - it's hard to argue with your long-term reasoning. This company seems to have more than its share of pivotal moments.

In random order:
The CAFC overturning Payne's initial findings in VA1

The Supreme Court deciding not to take up the case

Intel adopting RDRAM

Intel signing a multi-year cross-licensing deal with Rambus

Hitachi deciding to scrap litigation and signing on at the higher royalty rates

The expert findings in Italy suggesting that Micron does indeed infringe

McGuire's ruling (this is one of the few times I've made significant money on Rambus - to date - I think I've given it all back)

The Infineon settlement

I'm sure I'm missing some, but at the time, these events seemed likely to change the course for Rambus and finally get them on the path to worldwide settlements and peace across the land.

The point of my reminiscing is that I now see spoliation as the next pivotal event. I think I've posted previous diatribes on this very issue, but I really see the resolution of spoliation as the main determinant as to whether Rambus becomes the hero or goat in my portfolio. Every defense and counterattack by Rambus' adversaries hinges on spoliation and unclean hands.

The first step in the spoliation resolution is Payne. The only good thing about Payne is that he rules quickly so we don't have to wait long to be outraged by his shortsightedness. If we clear this hurdle, spoliation in Whyte's court does become an event that one could make some money on.