Skeptic,
I'm in total agreement with your reasoning for the price drop. All the news has been bad. Let's run thru those reasons and expand on it looking LONG TERM and see if we agree:
"rambus is suing it's second biggest customer"
.....Apparently there was no other choice. Samsung wants the Infineon deal or better. They know RMBS is vulnerable. They made a business decision, RMBS answered with a business decision of their own. RMBS cannot offer anyone else the IFX deal or they're giving up the dream of patent enforcement and licensing royalties long term. There was no choice!..It's still a negative...thus the price drop. However, because of Sammy having previously recognized the validity of the IP and having previously licensed RMBS IP their case is extremely weak. It seems obvious they are simply hoping Payne will give them the same bullet-proof vest he gave IFX.
"Payne could be potentially back in the picture"..
Samsung wouldn't appear to have the same leverage with Payne that IFX had (Plant in Va., Jobs, political connections, etc.). If Payne is on IFX payroll then it would be reasonable for him to send the Sammy case to Ca. He even spoke of doing that with the IFX case. He doesn't seem comfortable with patent cases. If he does take case it would mean the fix is in IMO, that the whole Va. case hinged on a ruin Rambus theme rather than save IFX. Just don't see it happening. I think Sammy really doesn't want to go to trial. Most of the patents Samsung is being sued on aren't the same as the IFX case anyway. They are more the ones the Hynix case hinges on.
"RMBS settled with Infineon for far less than most had hoped"
...Again, I don't think there was a choice. Payne had too much power and was too stubborn. A victory on appeal was not a guarantee, and the case might have been remanded again to Payne. RMBS needed closure in Va. We simply lost. I'm sure that downward momentum comes from that nightmare. Even so, management may have done the right thing. Only time will tell. It looked to me like a strategic decision...."we're banging our head against a Payne wall...spending all kinds of money on attoneys...let's chuck it and go west". It's under the bridge now. Nothing can be done about it.
The FTC is allowing the record to be re-opened to admit "new" evidence.
....Although the FTC could cause some short term damage (no doubt politically inspired)they cannot win an appeal of the ID unless the appeals court decides to cede the power of the Judiciary on patents to the Executive. This would be against the Separation of Powers in the Constitution. Micron ain't that strong!
"RMBS suffered another defeat in Europe"
...I wasn't aware that that was anything other than a single patent, a minor one at that. You, no doubt know more about this than me. All I know is the case in California right here in the USA is the one that matters.
"management continues to exercise options at every opportunity"
......whenever this comes up I say, "wouldn't you ?" Tate and those folks win both ways, why shouldn't they exercise, they still have a boatload if/when the bus drives off into the sunset. Us mortals have to wait as the price descends.
"there are no assurances that RAMBUS can resign Hitachi and Toshiba, Elphida and NEC are making fixed payments."
...These guys need the same incentive as everybody else. The threat that they will be prosecuted for theft. Between Ambler and Whyte I think the case will be airtight and appeal proof. Unless RMBS has done something that is not evident currently, their court chances are good. When a decision comes down there will be Collateral Estoppel to bring these folks into line.
I keep trying to re-examine the picture so as to, hopefully, be as informed as possible. The TMF board isn't interested right now, but I'm interested, and would love to hear anybody's ideas on these matters. I want to learn.
I have about 10K shares and still believe that the coil is wound tighter on this stock than any other I've watched. The number of potential buyers in the case of a definitive court win IMO is gigantic:
1.Old busriders sitting on the sidelines
2.freaked out shorts
3.institutions...not all of these fund managers are fools...many have the inside info on this story.
4.tech savvy investors who know the multiples.
5.I happen to believe that there is a sizable number of buyers in the enemy camps who might try to fund their payments by riding RMBS stock. Who would know better or sooner? These people are not fools.
6.Even Hager is preparing to buy more.
The important point is there will not be many sellers once the tide is turned. That's why the "pop" could be so explosive.
One thing I'm sure of is that no matter what happens I'm staying away from these litigation ensnarled stocks in the future.
Pruf
AI
