player, seasonality,
I have no idea what is the busy Q for companies in general, last year Q4 disappointed me, I said so, argued that the baseline non-BigDeal was critical, and got lectured about forests, trees, and GM doubling down. I was part of a small cadre that was saying if you back out GM numbers, sales were declining (tkx, xxxcslewis as I recall). But then it reversed in Q2 and Q3, along with my mood.
Q4 and Q1 were down last year, and I had been plotting/guessing Q4 was going to follow Q3 instead of following year ago Q4. It followed year ago Q, not most recent Q. There are no useful numbers prior to last year. With such a small sample I didn't adjust Q4 for Q4'10 weakness.
So, should I adjust Q1 as well, for what was Q1 weakness? That will certainly be one of my mocks.
As far as gov (as opposed to business), I believe Q4 is by far the worst Q for orders. Its the beginning of the fed FY, they never have a budget, all agencies are operating under assumptions in continuing resolutions ... gov spends its money in Q2 and Q3.
Well, that happens to also be when dotism has for some time guesses DoD might at some level engage. Indeed, many a large DoD order maps to that time period.
Having long placed more value in non-DoD non-LargeEnterprise business with the firm belief that it represents not only keeping the lights on and limiting dilution, but actually represent a significant growth opportunity, I am obviously disappointed in them falling a million+ short of what I was hoping.
To me, that million+ can only mean dilution. The loss, per se, doesn't phase me. I thought most guesses were short, and was far from believing the Safend dust was settled on the Safend deal and that much of that cost was going to manifest itself in Q4.
Going forward the company now has considerable overhead on flat sales.
The current situation has largely returned Wave to a binary, not something I like.
The above content is my opinion.
