The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

easy part first

a mammoth undertaking when you consider the # of miles of highway in the US. The initiative will expand with or without government involvement since the economic incentives already exist in the form of cheaper fuel. However, the build out will take decades if only private equity is utilized. I suspect GM's and Dodge's release of nat gas and/or bifuel pick up trucks next year will mark the start of more widespread use of Nat Gas for passenger vehicles. This should spur more private equity interest since the market is huge.

i agree with every bit of that although i'm taking your word for the GM & Dodge release date.

as for your numbered points:
#1. This is an area in which i work. I have an insider's view and I've become particularly cynical and jaundiced. To creatively paraphrase one of my company's former directors (he's quite green & liberal), you can only have so many wine and cheese gatherings about these things before people stop taking you seriously. Throw in a little of Nancy Pelosi talking about how she can spend the "revenue" generated from carbon taxes on other social programs and you might start to understand my cynicism.
#2. i agree with the 2nd sentence. At the moment, the only significant middle eastern exporter to the US is Saudi Arabia which isn't particularly unstable and they know they are as reliant on us as we are on them.
#3. don't agree. NG won't have any bearing on this at all. Interstate prices would be flatter now if different states didn't have such disparate fuel regulations and we didn't have transportation foul ups caused by things like shutting down the GOM for about 1 yr. And just to bring it up again: if the Keystone pipeline hadn't been held up for 3 yrs.
#4. see #3. And to continue tweaking Gary: If the Keystone pipeline can be held up for 3 yrs, why are NG pipelines going to go any faster?
#5. I wouldn't call it thriving but rather recovering. The market is glutted. There will be consolidation, supported by environmental regulation, and pricing will improve but i don't think we'll be seeing $15/MBTU in the next several years. If we do it'll kill the idea of adoption of NG for transportation in the US.

As i've said before, if NG producers were allowed to retain control from the reservoir to the fuel tank then they'd have more incentive to front money for investing in what you want (and it would certainly benefit me). Unfortunately, I think the barrier to that is the home heating and electrical power industries and state regulatory agencies. I don't think lobbying by chemical companies is a problem. Commodity chemicals manufacturing in the US was doomed by the PRC, US environmental regulations, and producers outside the US developing their own industries.