Your question leads one to think beyond the goal of the Eng Verification Test Bed and the Trade Show Prototype. I’ve rarely thought too far beyond attaining these two goals, but the highly anticipated Trade Show Prototype is still “just” a prototype and hardly the end of the story. There will be a lot of work to do beyond its introduction, the image space is still small in my opinion. I believe it would have to be scaled up to gain acceptance in most of the target industries and who knows what kind of effort that will take. Add in the desire for multi-color display and the scope of work needed begins to take on the appearance of another mountain to climb.
Attracting Sidney Aroesty as CEO in my opinion was a coup for the company. Past results are no guarantee of future success as the saying goes, but if you want the odds in your favor why not bring on somebody who has proven he can deliver. Further, the circumstances under which Mr. Aroesty became the CEO indicate an interest on his part in the company as more than just a job. 3Dicon came to TH Business Advisors for one of their “360 degree reviews” of the business, and during this process he became interested in 3Dicon as more than just a client for his company. Sid has mentioned that the feel at 3Dicon is similar to what he experienced at Diagnostic Controls as he built that business, with the excitement that new tech brings. Having Sid Aroesty at the helm is a big plus for us.
One thing I’ve been waiting for, and I think this also is what you are really asking, is confirmation that success is to some degree inevitable. It’s the tipping point if you will, once there the teeter tips to downhill and then only bad luck or bad management kills our success. I don’t know exactly what is going to be the signal that we’ve arrived at the tip point but if the E.V.T.B. works, and immediately they bring on a V.P. of Business Development who is quickly able to ink a deal with a well known company…maybe that’s when I say we’ve arrived. That COULD happen by summertime. I guess if I consider those preceding evidences the indicator by which the company gains the tip point and succeeds then I can probably apply a number to the odds. That the E.V.T.B. will work is fairly certain in my opinion, the proof of concept has shown that projecting 3 dimensional images is possible for Cspace to do, downsizing the mass of equipment required to a portable size and then upsizing the image space to ‘Snow Globe’ scale seems to be a dunk. Say we apply a 90% probability on the EVTB becoming successful. Following that, Mr. Aroesty has stated commercialization efforts could begin. That probably means bringing on a V.P. of Business Development, for which they told us they were interviewing candidates sometime last summer. A Business Development V.P. and moving toward commercialization will simply happen after the EVTB, there is no cost to the odds related here so we're still at 90%.
Next is the great variable; can the company land a customer or sign some sort of agreement that leads to revenue? This far, Cspace works…but does anybody really want it? We think there are people or companies who want it, but what we know is that the proof of concept “green tea cup” video we all know and love on Youtube shows us a device that hasn’t nailed us a deal of any kind. Not sure why this is, with the development and r&d horsepower behind the project you’d think potential customers would see what I’ve described above, that Cspace is viable and it’s only a matter of time till the EVTB is done and we put it out for highest bid lol. But nobody is flocking to their doors begging to sign on…why is that? It is where things get harder to predict, and perhaps why I would not guess the odds of success any better than your estimate of 65 to 75%. Those aren’t bad odds though, and even if the company ultimately fails there is probably still plenty of opportunity to make some money. It will be a tough decision to sell a hunk when there is something just kicking you in the shins saying it will go higher, but you'll probably kick yourself somewhere else if you don't take some profit. I know in hindsight I didn't sell enough last March. Anyhow, the quality of the information that we learn in the nearer term is critical in my opinion. Will it scream at you to 'hold' because the tipping point has been reached or is in view and success is inevitable? (along with a much higher pps) Or, is it kind of fluffy and speculative, the kind of info that will not sustain a run to higher levels? That's what we got during the 10 cent run last March, not much there to depend on. I suspect if we get more 'might' 'maybe' and 'could' style information that there will be massive selling pressure as the pps tries to move up, keeping a lid on the pps. I also would suggest that before the r/s the pps will have a hard time getting much traction, again on account of selling pressure simply from people willing to take profit before the split.
I've rambled here, I'm not too bad at typing so it's easy to do but I guess I will say our odds are 75% for success, with success defined as a viable product which results in a partnership, sales or contracts, something concrete on which you can depend. Looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out.
