We agree except i consider yours the very optimistic view.
It is a staple of this board :why buy it if you won't use it. It seems to matter little how much bought and unused material a critic like myself can point to, the next person always says, why buy it if you aren't going to use it.
Many gov/enterprise solutions are based on a reference package. The reference package might have a USB port, and nary a single USB device tis connected.
That the reference package has the ability does not necessarily mean every implementation will fully realize such potential. One of the nice things about standard machines is you can, e.g., fire people and give the machine to somebody else who might use different features.
I've never seen a hardware deployment like the TPM, which goes from a paperweight to a serious contributor to security for 20bucks. I'm figuring these enterprise/gov customers are playing hard with Dell as they do every procurement cycle) and the retail $10 to Wave is also way off the mark. Its not JUST vol, its Does the Gov have leverage?
The gov has bazillions of agencies that vary wildly in the reference package they will contract for as well as the heterogeneity of their deployment requirements. I'm thinking, but I do not know, that the CIA DDI and everybody below is going to want a pretty secure standard setup. So, how about Dept of Education, or the USDA, the Dept of Interior, The EPA has folks out in all sorts of field sites that need a computer. If it gets compromised, is it a big deal? Do they, under shrinking budgets, even Care? Is that particular agencies region X IT pro going to drop budget on ETS/KTM etc.? The US gov is in shrinking budget mode! The agencies do have some control over how they spend things.
You think because their reference package has a TPM they will automatically drop another $20 for some software. I don't.
MeeSees a 10-25% "on" rate for the next 18 months.
So lets go back to TPMs. i don't like your 40 mill next year, butt lets go with it.
40mill at a nickel per unit.
10-20% flipped on at $5 a unit (the volume discounts that gov et al get blow away the end-user price on Dell.com).
Going low is 4 mill machines at $5 for 20 mill. That is current burn.
High end is 40 mill. That's 20 mill earnings on CURRENT BURN.
20x20 is 400 .... or 4 bucks-ish a share. Take the PE to 40 and you land at 8ish. Somewhere in between is the mcap 1.5bill to which I refer. I consider my quick and loose model here to be a description of wild success.
I do not see a huge amount of pent up IT spending sitting out there to drop half a billion to a billion in ***EXTRA*** SPENDING that would be required to get this thing heading past an mcap 1 billion.
But enterprises might surprise and adopt faster than I think.
The above content is my opinion.
