Option Millionaires

[MNYC]

NFLX: No doubt there are a lot of people using it (incl my girlfriend + myself) but that doesn't change the fact that the CEO messed up big time this year as well as a lot of debt, too many costs to be really profitable as well as a lot more competition coming.

And the stock is still overvalued at these levels. I expect them to post bad earnings and it will gap down again. Definitely a stock to consider going in with Puts right before earnings.

However I didn't enter with Puts very EOD on Friday because I think it will crash to low 70's on Monday but simply because it's too overbought on 1hr chart and MACD turning. If it dips to 83-82 at some point on Monday (hopefully) it's already a 100-150% in my Puts.

Also read this article (Netflix Is Not HBO And It Never Will Be): http://seekingalpha.com/article/317674-netflix-is-not-hbo-and-it-never-will-be

And, all of a sudden, we're supposed to care and euphorically run the stock up on news that Netflix customers streamed 2 billion hours' worth of old movies, documentaries and re-run sitcoms in the fourth quarter. Where did that metric come from? And why wasn't it accompanied with news of subscriber growth? Because, as Needham noted Thursday morning, the only thing that can save NFLX, the stock, in 2012 is a spin on subscriber numbers:

Since Netflix has historically traded on its subscriber growth rate more than any other metric, such a move could potentially benefit the stock even if it translates into a loss in 2012.
Without any word from the company on the subscriber front to tag along with the streaming hours smoke and mirrors, I can only think the news will not be good when Netflix reports what was supposed to be a $1 billion fourth quarter on January 25th.

That's why Hastings continues to shift focus away from metrics that might actually mean something. He stopped talking about the virtuous cycle, revenue growth and profits a long time ago. Now, it appears he has little to say about what has always been his default in the event of Armageddon - subscriber growth.