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Tuesday, December 13, 2011 12:36:15 PM
The Morning After 3 minutes ago
My first thought was how well JPM and the FDIC played their hands. They elected to stand behind the protection of the court's rulings on the GSA, hold on to the tax refunds, and stare down the EC. My guess is the EC had to blink and capitulated even to giving up the appeals.
JPM has relinquished the BOLI/COLI but my suspicion is that they will be apportioned in the same manner as the tax refunds: to wit, to the extent created by WMB employees, JPM will have liquidated those policies; the ones covering WMI employees would go to WMI. WMB had more employees, but WMI the most senior ones.
As the architects of the seizure and the owners of the deepest pockets, they were equity's best hope of actual cash dollars for its new enterprise.
On the brighter side, I am thinking that there is a hint of the new company's true value in the apportionment of its stock. If the company were worth say $10B, then the preferreds would receive par over time, and commons slightly less than $2 per share.
All this presupposes, of course, that there is a business that can generate returns of that magnitude. I expect the EC has candidates lined up for that purpose, or candidates will present themselves to the EC now that all is known. The latter seems to me the best possibility for meaningful use of the tax benefits. Now that all is known suitors (most likely some who have been watching the case) will hopefully arrive over the next few weeks.
This plan brings home the extraordinary harm Weil Gotshal and Quinn Emmanuel did to WMI shareholders. Their destruction was so complete that JPM and the FDIC did not even have to forfeit the tax refunds which JPM arguably cannot legally obtain.
Business people abhor a vacuum, so someone (probably several) has eyes on the tax benefits, the only asset JPM couldn't steal. In the coming weeks we'll get an idea of just how much they can mitigate WMI's losses.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_W/threadview?m=te&bn=86316&tid=892431&mid=892431&tof=5&frt=2#892431
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