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The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (12/07/11)_TY_George


* Wednesday, December 7, 2011


For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat



There are two Head and Shoulders tops where their Necklines come in near the current Price. The larger Head and Shoulder Top where the Head is the May high (Red Neckline) comes in near the current price. A smaller Head and Shoulder pattern developed where the Head is the October 27 high and the Neckline (Blue line) comes in near current price and both of these Necklines may provide stiff resistance. On November 30, a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) appeared and pushed through the previous lows near 121 and now the previous lows should provided support on a pull back to that level and that area may line up for a bullish signal. We have circled in red a possible scenario that could develop. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.





Above is our TICK/TRIN ratio (second window down from top). This ratio has stayed in bullish territory even on the rally from the November low. If the market does pull back in the next couple of days or so the TICK/TRIN ratio may push further into the bullish territory and will help give confidence for a bullish buy signal.





Above is a shorter term view for GDX. A “Triangle Pattern” starting forming at the September high and the October low (see chart above). A “Sign of Strength” Through 57 appeared on November 30 and suggest the 57 range should now act as support. Yesterday GDX tested the 57 range and bounced off creating a bullish candlestick pattern called a “Bullish Engulfing” and added to the short term bullish picture. The FOMC meeting is next Tuesday and a lot of the time the market will become quit leading up to that event. In general market may settle back a bit short term. We have draw the trend lines of the Triangle pattern and we would like to see a “Sign of Strength” through the upper trend line to confirm the breakout. The bottom window is the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index and a cross above its 10 day moving average would be another bullish development. The bigger picture remains bullish.
Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

George.