The Ord Oracle By Tim Ord (11/30/11)_TY_George
* Wednesday, November 30, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
We are looking at the QQQ today as its drawing a clearer picture than the SPY. We didn’t get all the evidence we would have like at the last low and was looking for a minor retracement but the news of more stimuli snuffed that. We have founded when there are lots of gaps near one another the market is usually in a trading range. With the up and down gaps all over the place we are concluding the trading range will continue for a while longer. For near term the pattern formed from mid October to Mid November was a “Head and Shoulders top” where the “Head” came in at the October 27 high. This small “Head and Shoulder Top” had a downside target to 53 which was met. It also had a “Sign of Weakness” Through the Neckline and confirming the pattern. Resistance now lies at the Neckline which comes in near 56.50 of which we are almost there. Two large gaps are left open below (see chart above) and our targets to the downside for a potential long trade. According to our larger view of the market the larger trend is turning up and therefore will only trade the long side. Potential buy signal may be triggered at one of the two gaps below. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.
The intermediate term view of the SPX is bullish. The chart above dates back to 1992 and shows the VIX in the bottom window and the 100 day average of the TRIN in top window. Intermediate term lows have formed when the VIX has reached above 40 and the 100 day TRIN reached above 1.40. Both of these indicators reached these bullish levels at the October low and suggest the SPX has started an intermediate term rally. There can be backing and filling near term but in general we expect the market to hold up well into January.
Above is the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio dating back to late 1984. You have seen this chart before but its a good reminder to show what the bigger picture is doing. The monthly charts rule the weekly charts and the weekly charts rule the daily and on down. Therefore when the monthly charts are tuning bullish than its more of a waiting game for the rally to kick in. To review the bullish two part signal, the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio needs to close below 35 (on the September close the monthly RSI hit 29.95) which was met. The next part of the signal is for the monthly Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio trade below 20 and the bullish signal comes when it closes above 20. On the close of October the Slow Stochastics closed at 20.34 and has triggered the buy signal and today is the close of November and Slow Stochastic closed at 21.92 and remains on the buy signal. Previous signals of this type have lead to over 100% gains in 12 months. The bigger picture remains bullish.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
* Wednesday, November 30, 2011
For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Long on 10/4/11 SPX at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 = gain 9.02%
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
We are looking at the QQQ today as its drawing a clearer picture than the SPY. We didn’t get all the evidence we would have like at the last low and was looking for a minor retracement but the news of more stimuli snuffed that. We have founded when there are lots of gaps near one another the market is usually in a trading range. With the up and down gaps all over the place we are concluding the trading range will continue for a while longer. For near term the pattern formed from mid October to Mid November was a “Head and Shoulders top” where the “Head” came in at the October 27 high. This small “Head and Shoulder Top” had a downside target to 53 which was met. It also had a “Sign of Weakness” Through the Neckline and confirming the pattern. Resistance now lies at the Neckline which comes in near 56.50 of which we are almost there. Two large gaps are left open below (see chart above) and our targets to the downside for a potential long trade. According to our larger view of the market the larger trend is turning up and therefore will only trade the long side. Potential buy signal may be triggered at one of the two gaps below. Staying flat for now. Long the SPX on 11/4 close at 1123.95, Sold 10/18/11 at 1225.38 for gain of 9.02%.
The intermediate term view of the SPX is bullish. The chart above dates back to 1992 and shows the VIX in the bottom window and the 100 day average of the TRIN in top window. Intermediate term lows have formed when the VIX has reached above 40 and the 100 day TRIN reached above 1.40. Both of these indicators reached these bullish levels at the October low and suggest the SPX has started an intermediate term rally. There can be backing and filling near term but in general we expect the market to hold up well into January.
Above is the monthly XAU/GOLD ratio dating back to late 1984. You have seen this chart before but its a good reminder to show what the bigger picture is doing. The monthly charts rule the weekly charts and the weekly charts rule the daily and on down. Therefore when the monthly charts are tuning bullish than its more of a waiting game for the rally to kick in. To review the bullish two part signal, the monthly RSI of the XAU/GOLD ratio needs to close below 35 (on the September close the monthly RSI hit 29.95) which was met. The next part of the signal is for the monthly Slow Stochastics of the XAU/GOLD ratio trade below 20 and the bullish signal comes when it closes above 20. On the close of October the Slow Stochastics closed at 20.34 and has triggered the buy signal and today is the close of November and Slow Stochastic closed at 21.92 and remains on the buy signal. Previous signals of this type have lead to over 100% gains in 12 months. The bigger picture remains bullish.
Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html
George.
Trade at YOUR OWN: Risk, DueDiligence, RiskTolerance. Trading Responsiblity is Totally Yours!
You are Spending Your Money, no one elses! Be Wise, Be Thinking, Be Deliberate!
Be Lucky, Chichi2
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