Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[RichardTC]

I'm reminded of the 2004 election where political pundits suggested that if the race were between "Bush" and "Not Bush", "Not Bush" would have won in a landslide. But it was a race between Bush and Kerry and voters weren't impressed with Kerry.

I think that's what we'll see in 2012. If it was "Obama" vs "Not Obama", "Not Obama" would win easily. But when you substitute Romney or Gingrich or anyone else, the math changes in Obama's favor.

Romney has been the most consistent and bankable of the group, so I think he'll be the 2012 Republican nominee. Conservatives aren't happy with him so he's going to have a pick a conservative running mate to have any chance of winning the general election. And that's where the risk is. If Republicans run too far to the right, they'll turn off swing voters and Obama will win.