Street Resources (fka srs.h)

[the cork]

Re: None Post # [Max field length is unknown] of 26616

BZA.TO vs. GNN.TO vs. NWM.TO

I've been buying NWM this week at .095 and .10, betting that they will resolve their start up problems and start producing at 42k oz/year rate sometime in next 4 months. They need to announce 3500 oz/month production rate to acheive feasiliby study-level production. In a perfect world, NWM would acheive their target, get a share price re-rating and then get bought out by Timmins or Argonaut at a nice 20% premium to trailing 20 DMA.

NWM, GGN and BZA are interestingly in similar stages of pre-commercial ramp-up, all going into production with feasibility or pre-feasibility (GGN only) studies and have similar amount of P&P reserves in 350k range, all guiding for 42-45k oz/year in 2012.

NWM is the cheapest with a roughly 55M EV (40M MC + 15M project debt), followed by GGN @ 60M and BZA @ 108M (non fully diluted).

GGN is a sell on RSI>70-80 if they get a big re-rating as their mine plan only has them productig at 45k oz/year rate for two years, followed by a big drop off. Their entire Nevada property has sub 1g/t near surface oxide targets but is covered in pediment gravels so only magnetic/IP (not soil sampling) works. It is a past producing property and the biggest oxide open pit freedom flats is an example of an oxide Au deposit that had no surface signature originally.

NWM but a giant flag out there a week ago that they want to be acquired, so are a hold for a potential buy-out.

I'm hoping that BZA still gets a giant re-rating like Silvercrest did in Fall 2010. Silvercrest popped up way past fair value and has never reattained these levels. I've got a rough fully-diluted NAV of .80 on BZA vs. their current SP of .60 which is not taking into account the dilution that should happen as most options/warrants are in the money.

Diversified across these three hoping for doubles on all of them. Strongly in the money on BZA/GGN so double expectation is based on earlier entry point but NWM still could be double from here in a best case scenario.

dr_airtime