i am slightly baffled as to why the vast majority here seem to be fairly certain, considering the law of the case and the result of mediation, that the common shares will at most see new co. as value. no $, no jpm shares eg., just gradual value over time. (this excludes the usual basherz, who will go unnamed yet not unshamed)
this talk (mostly speculative, not empirical or fact-based) is markedly different than past, less pessimistic, speculation - kinda surprising given the power shift over to equity in recent months.
when considering S & G's strength and M.O.; a PoR which has struck out at the plate 2X; as well as the potential wedge in the GSA, IT, that we are currently waiting out - i don't think the buck stops at new co.
i believe we go to DC or JPM & fraudic buckle from this wedge and pitch in more than was in the spring settlement(4b deposit+). maybe commons do end up w/ "just" value in new co., yet i believe prefs. will see more than 20 percent. rofl. yet, i do have my doubts.
the law of the case does currently stand as we know. yet events are in motion which will, not may, markedly change the landscape going forward. is it purely a binary event? ie. settlement/d.c., or . . . what happens?
regardless, as it stands NOW, time and momentum are on our side - no reason to just accept a paltry new co. perhaps a conservative view is more appropriate here, yet i see more facts (big picture) which have shifted the balance of power to the E.C., and seem to me to entail a high probability of greater returns than are currently being discussed. the paper tiger 50+B claims are no match for sealed envelopes, facts, paper trails, arm twisting etc etc etc. maybe they were safe before por denial 2x, but they are more tenuous now then ever, as are JPM and Fraudic's positions. what is not being discussed interests me more than rehashing the finer points of what probably won't happen as we all seem to think and write these weeks. . .
would we be here still, today, after 3+ years, if not for the slow-turning tide of walrath denying the dips and frauds their illgotten banquet? 2X? the EC has more power and influence now than ever! yet persons published expectations seem to have dripped down alongside the pps?
i maintain we will see more than what is currently speculated as being best possible outcome of mediation. i therefore question the contrary views of others.
i would like to see empirical evidence rebutting a more positive outlook, except from Jerle, given his choice of footwear (flip flops).
i would also encourage any reader to look through "the doubter's companion" by J.R. Saul., as well as "fooled by randomness" Taleb.
AI
