Petaquilla Minerals Ltd. (fka PTQMF)

[Lojiko]

Thanks, badge. I'm a big fan of evidence and accountability. I can totally understand other board members getting frustrated by those who say "Wait until X, then we'll take off". Heck, I was one of the people saying stuff like that almost two years ago ... wait until production starts, wait until we achieve commercial production, wait until the debt is paid off, yada, yada, yada ... I was wrong about a lot of stuff. This road has been a longer, harder slog than I ever imagined, but I currently have more shares than ever before, am tempted to add more if we're still under $1.50 by mid-FEB, and am optimistic that I'll make more money off this stock than I ever would have imagined.

I think I have a reputation on this board for demanding evidence and being skeptical of predictions. I encourage people to be critical of my analysis. Point out the flaws, disagree, discuss ... it's the only way we'll learn. I'm a researcher by trade and science is based on the doctrine of falsifiability ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falsifiability ). We make decisions based on logic, theory, and prior empirical evidence (LTE) and then test those assumptions to see if they're true. The same is true of investing, imo. I used LTE to arrive at my predictions. If it works, great; if not, then it's back to the drawing board to develop more theories to test.

I should be clear in that my valuation analysis is not a prediction - it's just a demonstration of where we might be given the conditions of the model. However, if we follow the same valuation pattern other miners do, we may be approaching what I believe is an inflection point in share volume, price, and stability. Based on industry standard PE ratios and projected EPS forecasts, I think we might see the SP turn around relatively fast (i.e., over a period of several months) starting sometime between NOV 15th (Q1 filing) and APR 15th (Q3 filing).

Regarding your post:

1. Your cautious optimism is your best friend. I too am cautiously optimistic and if I had to guess based on past company performance, I would say my valuation predictions will probably fall short.

2. Always look at all sides of an issue to make sure you have your bases covered. The following was released OCT 20th (just one day after the Spanish press article associating PTQ with Lomero-Poyatos!) by Iberian Gold (that's CMR's Iberian, not our Iberian Resources). According to them, everything is hunky-dory ... funny, I haven't seen them in the Spanish press. They say:

We have made significant progress with our Spanish mine at Lomero Poyatos in Huelva. We are advised that the necessary permit consents to enable the commencement of mining activities is imminent and have met the local Junta in an effort to speed up the granting of the permits.
http://www.iberiangoldgroup.com//-%20New%20Folder/October%2020,%202011%20-%20Letter%20-%20To%20Shareholders.pdf

3. Credit for finding the Spanish article goes to BlackTartanSlammer on the CMR board (not on iHub ... seriously, that guy is awesome ... great skeptic, call's out CMR management and their broken promises regularly, keeps their feet to the fire)

If I've learned anything about PTQ, it's that it's full of (usually unpleasant) surprises. I've learned a lot holding a trading this stock. As much as I love to learn, I'd rather be making money now tho.